As talks of a deal between Washington and Tehran gained steam over the weekend, GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan offered a reality check on Sunday: don't expect gas prices to crash just because there's chatter about a ceasefire.

De Haan took to X, quoting a user who predicted falling gas prices in the coming days. The analyst acknowledged that fuel prices are indeed dropping, but he poured cold water on the idea of a rapid decline. Until a definitive agreement between the U.S. and Iran is "signed & a significant amount of ships transit through the Strait," the national average price for a gallon of gas will likely stay "well above $4."

"Only once we start seeing confidence and ships move will prices plummet," De Haan said. According to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), the national average for gas has already fallen to $4.515/gallon. California drivers are still hurting, though, with prices above $6 at $6.111/gallon despite the recent decline.

Over on the prediction market platform Kalshi, bettors are weighing in on where prices might go. As of Sunday, the market implied a 50% chance that the national average hits $2.80/gallon by the end of 2026. There's also an 85% chance that prices fall below $3.80/gallon this year. That's a lot of optimism, but it hinges on the Strait of Hormuz actually reopening for business.

The geopolitical backdrop is messy. President Donald Trump has been facing criticism from GOP lawmakers over a possible deal with Iran that would reportedly include a 60-day ceasefire. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) said he was "deeply concerned" about a deal that could reverse the U.S.'s military gains. Trump himself has said a deal is imminent, following more than 80 days of war, and that negotiations with the Iranian government are proceeding well—but he also cautioned against rushing into any agreements with Tehran.

So the path to cheaper gas isn't just about a piece of paper. It's about seeing tankers actually move through the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, De Haan's message is clear: don't hold your breath for $3 gas.