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Everyone knows Tesla (TSLA) as the electric vehicle company that shook up the auto industry. But that story is getting old. The real narrative now is about self-driving software, robotaxis, and a humanoid robot named Optimus that Elon Musk thinks could be worth more than everything else Tesla does combined.
One analyst on Wall Street is making a bold claim: if you buy Tesla stock today, you're basically getting Optimus for free.
Piper Sandler's Alexander Potter isn't backing down from his bullish stance. He's sticking with an Overweight rating and a $500 price target on Tesla stock.
In a new note to clients, Potter breaks down Tesla's business into 17 different product lines — from insurance to robotaxis to Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions. Add them all up, and he figures they're worth about $400 per share. That's the sum-of-the-parts value for everything Tesla does today, minus one big piece.
"Critically, this analysis excludes Optimus, Tesla's forthcoming humanoid robot. In other words, at $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for 'free,'" Potter wrote.
That's a striking way to frame it. At Tuesday's price of around $430, the market is already pricing in some Optimus upside — but Potter suggests the real value hasn't even been modeled yet. His analysis now includes insurance and separates robotaxi revenue from FSD, items that weren't in his last detailed report.
Potter says future FSD subscriber numbers and robotaxi metrics will be key to justifying that $400 floor. But the real prize? That's Optimus.
"Optimus and inference-as-a-service are thesis-defining products that, arguably, will be worth more than Tesla's other businesses combined. But where to begin forecasting products with the potential to fundamentally reshape labor markets and alter global GDP?" Potter asked.
For now, he's leaving Optimus out of his valuation. But that doesn't mean it's not worth anything — quite the opposite.
Getting Optimus for "free" could turn out to be the deal of a century if Musk's vision comes true. The Tesla CEO has been crystal clear about the robot's importance.
Musk has said that FSD and Optimus are "the biggest factors" in Tesla achieving its Master Plan Part 4. He's tweeted that "80% of Tesla's value will be Optimus." And in June 2024, he suggested Optimus could help Tesla hit a $25 trillion market capitalization.
"I think that's probably correct if we execute well on autonomous transport and Optimus," Musk said.
He's called Optimus "the biggest product of all time," claiming it has five times the productivity of a person since it can operate 24/7 while plugged in. Musk has even said Optimus could become "an incredible surgeon," hinting at medical applications. On the more mundane side, he's talked about the robot cooking, mowing lawns, helping with children, and caring for the elderly.
Tesla expects to begin third-party sales and high-volume production of Optimus in 2027. That's not far off.
For Tesla shareholders, the Optimus bet is a high-risk, high-reward option embedded in the stock. If Musk is right — and that's a big if — the robot business alone could be worth more than Tesla's entire current market cap. If he's wrong, the stock still has the $400 floor from other businesses, according to Potter.
At $430.08 on Tuesday, Tesla shares are down about 3.2% year-to-date in 2026, trading within a 52-week range of $273.21 to $498.83. The stock has pulled back from recent highs, but the Optimus narrative is just getting started.
Potter's analysis suggests that at current levels, investors are essentially getting a free call option on a potential multi-trillion-dollar business. Whether that option pays off depends on Tesla's ability to execute on its robot dreams — and on whether the world is ready for a humanoid robot that could reshape labor markets and global GDP.
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