Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is feeling pretty good about the Senate. The House? Not so much.

Speaking Tuesday at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, Scott told Fox Business's Charles Gasparino that "Republicans will stay in the majority." When Gasparino asked specifically about the Senate, Scott doubled down: "In the Senate, for sure."

Scott chairs the Senate GOP campaign committee, so he's got a front-row seat to the electoral math. Right now, Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats would need to flip four GOP seats to take control — and that's assuming they don't lose any of their own. Even if the chamber ends up 50-50, Vice President JD Vance would break the tie in favor of Republicans.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has shifted several Senate races toward Democrats this spring, but it still describes Republicans as favorites to keep the chamber. The political climate has gotten rougher for the GOP, but the map is working in their favor.

North Carolina: The Big Test

One of the toughest tests is North Carolina, where retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis leaves an open seat that Democrats are eyeing hard. Scott acknowledged the race "will be a challenge," but he predicted former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley would beat former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. A High Point University/YouGov poll from late March to early April showed Cooper leading Whatley 50% to 42% among 703 likely voters — outside the survey's 4.3 percentage-point margin of error. So it's close, but Scott is betting on his guy.

In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins is running for a sixth term. She could face Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and Marine Corps veteran, after Gov. Janet Mills decided not to run for Senate. That race could be another bellwether.

The House: A Different Beast

Scott was more cautious about the House, calling it a "different" and "challenging" story. Republicans hold a narrow 217-212 advantage, with five vacancies. That's not a lot of breathing room.

History is also working against them. In four of the last five midterm elections, the president's party lost control of the House. The only exception was 2014. The Cook Political Report currently lists just 16 House seats as toss-ups — a sign of shrinking competition — and most of those are held by Republicans. That means a few bad nights could flip the chamber.

So Scott's message is clear: the Senate looks safe, but the House is a coin flip. And in midterms, the party in power usually loses.