AI hyperscaler CoreWeave (CRWV) has been on a tear. Since hitting a low of $67.15 on March 30, shares have rallied 103% — a remarkable rebound for a company that went public just over a year ago. But the real test comes Thursday after market close, when CoreWeave reports its first-quarter earnings.

The pressure is on. Analysts are expecting record revenue, and the stock has already priced in a lot of optimism. Will CoreWeave deliver, or will history repeat itself with a post-earnings selloff?

What Analysts Expect

Wall Street is looking for first-quarter revenue of $1.96 billion, according to data from MarketDash. That would be more than double the $981.63 million CoreWeave reported in the same quarter last year, and it would top the company's current quarterly record of $1.57 billion set in Q4 2025.

CoreWeave has beaten revenue estimates in every quarter since going public — four straight beats. The company has also topped earnings-per-share estimates for three consecutive quarters. But analysts expect a loss of $1.20 per share this quarter, wider than the 60-cent loss a year ago.

Analysts Are Bullish

Several analysts have raised their price targets on CoreWeave stock ahead of the report. Here's a rundown of the latest ratings:

• Jefferies: Maintained Buy, raised target from $120 to $160
• Citigroup: Maintained Buy, raised target from $126 to $155
• Oppenheimer: Maintained Outperform, raised target from $140 to $150
• Wells Fargo: Maintained Overweight, raised target from $125 to $135
• Barclays: Maintained Equal-Weight, raised target from $90 to $106

The upgrades reflect growing confidence in CoreWeave's position in the AI compute boom, especially given its close ties to NVIDIA (NVDA), which is both a partner and an investor.

The Backlog Is the Star

CoreWeave's revenue is impressive, but the number everyone will be watching is its backlog. At the end of Q4, the company reported a revenue backlog of $66.8 billion — essentially a pipeline of future contracts that will convert into revenue over time.

Investors want to see that number grow. With major tech companies ramping up capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, CoreWeave is well-positioned to win more business. A bigger backlog would signal that demand for its cloud services remains strong.

The Ghost of Q4

CoreWeave stock has a history of selling off after earnings. After the Q4 report on Feb. 26, shares closed at $97.63. The next day, they opened at $84.22 and closed at $79.56 — a drop of about 18% in one day.

The stock continued to slide through March, bottoming out at $67.15 on March 30. Since then, it's been a rocket ride higher, but the memory of that post-earnings plunge lingers.

Will history repeat itself? Or will CoreWeave's strong results and growing backlog convince investors to hold on?

Stock Performance

CoreWeave shares closed at $137.99 on Wednesday, up 7.89% on the day. The stock has a 52-week range of $50.18 to $187. Year-to-date, shares are up 92%, and over the past 52 weeks, they've gained more than 154%.

With expectations high and the stock already up big, Thursday's report could be a make-or-break moment. If CoreWeave delivers record revenue and a growing backlog, the rally might have more room to run. If not, investors could be in for another bumpy ride.