The S&P 500 had a rough Tuesday, dropping 0.63% to close at 7,064.01. The culprit? Growing anxiety that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire wouldn't hold past the deadline. But after the close, President Donald Trump announced an extension, citing a "seriously fractured" Iranian government and requests from Pakistani officials for more time to negotiate. That shifted the mood quickly.
Polymarket, the Polygon-based prediction market, is reflecting that optimism. As of Tuesday evening, about 89% of traders on the April 22 market are betting the S&P 500 will open higher on Wednesday. The crowd is overwhelmingly bullish, even after Tuesday's decline.
The ceasefire extension reduces the immediate risk of escalation, though uncertainty about a lasting deal remains. Oil prices had risen earlier in the session on supply disruption fears, but the extension may cool those concerns.
Investors also have a busy earnings calendar to navigate. Before the bell Wednesday, AT&T (AT&T (T)) and Boeing (Boeing (BA)) report. After the close, all eyes will be on Tesla (Tesla (TSLA)). These reports could add volatility regardless of geopolitical news.
Futures are pointing higher: S&P 500 futures rose 0.55% in early trading, aligning with the Polymarket sentiment. But as Tuesday showed, the open doesn't always predict the close. The April 21 Polymarket bet resolved "Up"—the index opened above the prior close—even though it later finished lower.
So will Wednesday's open follow the crowd's bet? The extension is a positive signal, but earnings and lingering uncertainty could keep things interesting.
