Here's a political prediction with a cash wager attached: Senator Ted Cruz says he'll bet $100 that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer will shut down the entire federal government for a month right before the midterm elections.
Speaking on CNBC, the Texas Republican argued that federal funding is set to expire on September 30, and he expects Democrats won't lift a finger to prevent what comes next. "Chuck Schumer is not a creative guy, he's not hard to predict," Cruz said. "Last year, right before the election, what did Schumer do? He shut the whole government down."
Cruz's theory is that Democrats see political gold in government gridlock. He predicts Schumer will let funding lapse on October 1, ensuring that "on Election Day … the government is shut down." The resulting chaos—think airport delays and federal employees wondering about their paychecks—becomes a campaign commercial. "The Democrats can say, ‘See, the Republicans are in charge, they don't know what they're doing,'" Cruz argued.
He specifically pointed to funding warnings at the Department of Homeland Security, where officials have said the agency may soon struggle to pay employees if budget issues aren't resolved. Schumer did not immediately respond to a request for comment from MarketDash.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, Senate Republicans have their own October scenarios in mind. On Monday, some viewed a potential Supreme Court vacancy—including a possible retirement by Justice Samuel Alito—as a possible boost ahead of the 2026 midterms. Privately, some see it as an "October surprise" that could energize conservative voters, while Senator John Cornyn called it a "galvanizing issue."
The political machinery is already warming up. Last month, a Trump-aligned super PAC announced a $50 million voter turnout push led by Chris Buskirk and linked to Vice President J. D. Vance, signaling strengthened Republican campaign resources after securing major donor support.
And in a separate legislative drama, former President Donald Trump has been pushing House Republicans to pass the SAVE America Act, arguing it would secure election victories. The bill passed the House but has stalled in the Senate, as Trump continues to call for stricter voting rules and has warned he won't back other legislation until it passes.
So there you have it: one side betting on a shutdown, the other eyeing a Supreme Court shake-up, and both parties pouring money and rhetoric into the final stretch. It's going to be an interesting autumn in Washington.
