Here's a fun fact about the semiconductor world: when Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd (TSM) sneezes, everyone from Nvidia Corp (NVDA) to Apple Inc (AAPL) catches a cold. Or, in this case, gets a fever for the next big thing. TSMC and its star-studded client list—think Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Broadcom Inc (AVGO), and Qualcomm Inc (QCOM) too—are diving headfirst into the 2-nanometer chip era. Rolf Bulk, Head of Semiconductor & Infrastructure Equity Research at Futurum Equities, just laid out what that means for demand, pricing, and who's going to pay up.

2nm: The Slow Burn with a Hot Future

Bulk told CNBC on Friday that demand for 2nm chips is looking strong, with the big AI and smartphone players all jockeying to adopt this new node and its offshoots. But here's the catch: don't expect it to flood the revenue streams overnight. Even later this year, Bulk says 2nm will probably account for less than 10% of TSMC's sales. Why? Because scaling up from a massive existing base takes time, even for a company that's historically nailed its production yields.

And there's a cost to being on the cutting edge. That early ramp-up could squeeze gross margins in the back half of 2026, potentially shaving a few percentage points off the current 66% level—which, by the way, is already up about seven points from a year ago. So, TSMC might take a small hit to keep the future on track.

The Art of Charging More (to Some People)

Now for the pricing strategy, which is where it gets interesting. Bulk expects TSMC to play favorites with its wallet. AI-focused customers like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom run with fatter margins, so they can stomach higher prices. Smartphone folks like Apple and Qualcomm? A bit more price-sensitive. The solution: multiple variants of the 2nm node with tiered pricing.

The baseline wafer price for 2nm is estimated around $30,000, a jump from roughly $24,000 for 3nm. That's a significant premium, and it's why Bulk thinks this pricing power will fuel margin expansion again in 2027, once the initial production kinks are ironed out. In short, pay now, profit later.

Shortages? What Shortages?

Of course, it's not all smooth silicon. Bulk points to geopolitical risks and supply constraints—critical materials like helium are a growing headache for the chip industry. But here's the kicker: TSMC is so central to the global AI value chain as the only leading-edge foundry that it's probably first in line for any scarce resources. Even if bottlenecks pop up, TSMC's strategic importance likely means it keeps churning out advanced chips while others might sweat. It's good to be the king.

As for the market's take: Taiwan Semiconductor shares were up 0.38% at $364.74 in premarket trading on Friday, according to market data.