So, the S&P 500 had a pretty good Tuesday—up 1.18% to close at 6,967.38. That’s the kind of move that makes you sit up and notice, especially when it’s part of a broader rally. What’s driving it? Well, two things you might not expect to see together: easing oil prices and renewed chatter about a possible U.S.-Iran deal. It’s like the market decided to take a breather from worrying about war and inflation all at once.
Now, heading into Wednesday, everyone’s wondering: will it keep going? The crowd over on the Polygon-based prediction market Polymarket seems pretty split. As of April 15, about 51% of traders are betting the S&P 500 will open higher, with early activity building around that “Up” or “Down” question. It’s not a huge majority—basically a coin flip with a slight edge to the bulls. That tells you there’s some uncertainty in the air, even after a strong day.
Why That Number Matters
Here’s the thing: the S&P 500 is now less than 1% below its all-time high of 7,002.28, which it hit back in January. That’s a pretty sharp rebound from the volatility we saw when the Iran war first flared up. It’s like the market has decided to look past the worst-case scenarios, at least for now.
What’s helping? Diplomacy, for one. President Donald Trump said earlier this week that Tehran wants to strike a deal, and a White House official told CNBC on Tuesday that a second round of talks is under discussion—though nothing’s formally scheduled yet. It’s not a done deal, but the mere possibility seems to be lifting spirits.
Then there’s oil. WTI crude fell nearly 8% on Tuesday, while Brent dropped more than 4%. That’s a relief for anyone worried that high energy costs would keep inflation stubbornly high. And speaking of inflation, March’s producer price index came in softer than expected, which reinforces the hope that the Federal Reserve might not need to tighten policy further in response to the recent oil shock. It’s a nice one-two punch for market sentiment.
The Bull Case
Tuesday marked the S&P 500’s ninth gain in 10 sessions. That’s a pretty hot streak. Futures were little changed in early trading, suggesting markets might pause to catch their breath after that run, but the underlying optimism around geopolitics and earnings seems to be holding up.
What’s on tap for Wednesday? A fresh batch of corporate results before the bell, including Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS), along with March’s import and export price data. Bank earnings are always a big deal—they give you a read on the health of the economy and how consumers and businesses are holding up.
Meanwhile, chip giant ASML (ASML) raised its sales forecast for 2026 after beating first-quarter revenue and profit expectations, thanks to sustained demand for AI chips. Its Nasdaq-listed shares were up about 1% in premarket trading. That’s a good sign for tech and the broader market—when the companies making the tools for AI are doing well, it tends to spill over.
Oh, and for those keeping score on Polymarket: the April 14 bet resolved “Up,” with $79,468 in traded volume. The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 6,910.20, above the prior close of 6,886.24, as upbeat sentiment around diplomacy and softer inflation data supported premarket trading. So the bulls got it right yesterday. Will they do it again today? We’ll see.
