So here's a thing you can do in the oil business when you want to get more of what you like and less of what you don't: swap assets. That's exactly what Chevron Corporation (CVX) is doing in Venezuela.
The company said Monday it has agreed to an asset swap with Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, to strengthen its heavy oil position. Under the deal, Chevron will increase its stake in Petroindependencia to 49% and gain rights to develop the Ayacucho 8 area near the Petropiar project in the Orinoco Oil Belt. In exchange, Venezuela will receive Chevron's offshore gas interests in Plataforma Deltana blocks and a minority stake in Petroindependiente.
Chevron says the move supports its focus on high-value crude assets and operational efficiency, while reinforcing its long-standing presence in the country. Which is a polite way of saying: we like heavy oil here, we're good at it, and we'd rather have more of that than some offshore gas projects.
Why Venezuela Still Matters to Chevron
Chevron's expanding footprint in Venezuela underscores its decades-long presence in the country, dating back to 1923, and highlights its role in regional energy security. The company remains the only U.S. oil major operating in Venezuela, a position that has supported recent earnings performance.
During the last earnings call, CEO Mike Wirth reaffirmed that commitment, stating, "We remain committed to [Venezuela's] present. And we stand ready to help it build a better future while strengthening U.S. energy and regional security."
JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram expects production in Venezuela to increase by about 50% over the next 18–24 months from current levels of roughly 250,000 barrels per day, aligning with broader industry expectations for growth if conditions remain favorable.
In an email interview, oil veteran Baron Lamarre said if Venezuela ramps up, one major sits in "pole position." Chevron has the "clearest line of sight" in the recovery trade. He pointed to deep legacy exposure, joint ventures with PDVSA, and active export flows. "Deep legacy presence, existing JVs, and active exports put Chevron in pole position to monetize new investment and capacity recovery," he said.
Recent data show Chevron is moving close to 300,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude into the U.S., making it the single largest corporate channel for those flows. That's not nothing—it's basically a steady stream of oil that Chevron gets to sell while other companies are sitting on the sidelines.
Earnings Are Coming, and They Might Be 'Noisy'
Chevron is scheduled to release its first-quarter 2026 earnings on Friday, May 1, 2026, before the market opens.
JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram expects the restoration of the company's "key upstream and downstream profit drivers" to be likely to provide "a strong foundation for earnings growth" over the remainder of the year, backed by elevated commodity prices and refining margins.
The war in Iran is likely to affect Chevron far less than its peers, he added. But it's worth noting that major oil producers, like Chevron, are facing significant disruptions that offset potential gains. According to reports, Chevron lost about 6% of global production in the first quarter.
What the Charts Are Saying
Chevron is sitting in the upper half of its 52-week range ($132.04 to $214.71), but it's no longer pressing the highs, which fits a consolidation phase after a strong run. The stock is trading 5.1% below its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) and 9.7% above its 100-day SMA, a split that points to short-term softness while the intermediate uptrend still holds.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend/momentum measure, is below its signal line and the histogram is negative, which leans toward fading upside momentum versus earlier in the trend. When MACD stays under its signal, rallies often need more time (or a catalyst) to regain traction.
Over the last 12 months, the stock is up 41.72%, which tells you the longer-term tape has been decisively positive despite the recent pullback. The key question now is whether the stock can stabilize above nearby support before sellers start targeting deeper mean-reversion levels.
- Key Support: $182.00 — an area where buyers have tended to show up on pullbacks.
- Key Resistance: $214.50 — where prior rallies have stalled near the 52-week high zone.
Earnings Expectations and What Analysts Think
Following last quarter's results, investors are now tracking the path toward the next reporting date on May 1, 2026.
- EPS Estimate: $1.71 (Down from $2.18 YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $50.49 Billion (Up from $47.61 Billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E of 28.9x (Indicates premium valuation relative to peers)
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $195.33. Recent analyst moves include:
- RBC Capital: Outperform (Raises Target to $220.00) (April 13)
- Wells Fargo: Overweight (Raises Target to $222.00) (April 9)
- Citigroup: Buy (Raises Target to $235.00) (April 2)
Where the Stock Is Trading
Chevron shares were down 0.93% at $189.99 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to market data.
.jpeg)
