So here's the thing about foldable phones: they've been around for a while, but they've mostly been a niche product for tech enthusiasts. Samsung has been the big player, Motorola has had some success, and Google dipped a toe in the water. But now Apple Inc. (AAPL) is getting ready to enter the market, and when Apple enters a market, things tend to change.
According to Counterpoint Research, Apple could capture an estimated 46% share of the North American foldable smartphone segment in 2026. That's nearly half the market in its first year. The entire segment is projected to grow 48% year-over-year in 2026, so Apple isn't just taking share from existing players—it's helping to grow the whole pie while taking the biggest slice.
What Happens to Everyone Else?
When Apple shows up to the party, other guests tend to get pushed toward the walls. Counterpoint expects Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Google's share to decline from 5% to 3%, as its single-foldable lineup overlaps with Apple's positioning. Motorola's share could drop from 44% to 23%, despite efforts to expand its portfolio.
But the biggest shift might be for Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (SSNLF), which is projected to see its North American share fall from 51% to 29% as Apple intensifies competition. Samsung is expected to broaden its foldable lineup in response, but when Apple decides to compete in your space, it's never comfortable.
Why Analysts Are Bullish on Demand
Bank of America Securities analyst Wamsi Mohan recently maintained a Buy rating on Apple, saying its planned 2026 foldable iPhone launch could drive strong early demand of 10 million to 20 million units. He cited support from premium users and demand in China.
Mohan added that a staggered release strategy should help smooth the supply chain and production cycles. This is classic Apple—they don't just launch products, they orchestrate launches to manage expectations and production constraints. Even with a slight cut to his price target, Mohan sees the foldable iPhone as a significant growth driver.
What the Stock Chart Says
Let's talk about Apple's stock for a moment. The company is sitting in the middle of its 52-week range ($189.81 to $288.62), which fits a market that's digesting gains rather than trending cleanly. The stock is trading 2.1% above its 20-day simple moving average but 2.1% below its 100-day SMA—a split that leans constructive short-term while the intermediate trend still needs repair.
The moving average convergence divergence (MACD), a trend and momentum measure, has the MACD line above the signal line and the histogram is positive, which leans toward improving upside momentum pressure. That "turn" matters because Apple saw a bullish MACD cross in April 2025, and traders often look for follow-through when MACD stays on the right side of its signal.
On a longer lens, Apple is up 27.99% over the past 12 months, which is consistent with a still-positive big-picture tape despite the recent consolidation. The golden cross back in September 2025 (50-day SMA above the 200-day SMA) also supports the idea that the longer-term trend hasn't fully broken, even if the stock is currently stuck below its 50-day and 100-day SMAs.
- Key Resistance: $276.00 — an area where rallies have recently stalled
- Key Support: $246.00 — a level where buyers have tended to show up
The Bottom Line
Apple shares were down 0.02% at $259.14 during premarket trading on Tuesday, according to market data. But the more interesting story isn't today's price movement—it's what happens when Apple enters a new market. The company has a history of taking existing product categories and making them mainstream. With foldable phones, they're not just entering the market—they're projected to immediately dominate it.
The real question for investors isn't whether Apple will sell foldable phones (they will), but how this changes the competitive landscape. Samsung has dominated this space for years. Google has been experimenting. Motorola has found a niche. Now Apple is coming, and when Apple decides to compete, everyone else needs to figure out how to respond.
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