Here's a fun thing about markets: they're never static, even when something seems like an undisputed leader. Take the world of generative AI, where OpenAI's ChatGPT has been the name on everyone's lips. According to BNP Paribas analyst Nick Jones, the landscape is starting to shift. The accelerating adoption of AI and the skyrocketing demand for the infrastructure to run it are creating some clear winners—and they're not all who you might expect.

Jones pointed out on Thursday that adoption of Alphabet's Google (GOOGL) and (GOOG) Gemini and Anthropic's Claude continued to rise in March. Both platforms managed to siphon off market share, gaining ground in key metrics like website visits and monthly active users. The twist? This growth came at the expense of the category leader. While ChatGPT remains top dog, Jones noted it actually lost share across both web and mobile platforms during the same period.

So, if users are starting to experiment beyond ChatGPT, who else stands to win? Jones makes a compelling case for Amazon (AMZN). He argues that various data points, including recent comments from CEO Andy Jassy, support the view that Amazon is exceptionally well-positioned in the AI arms race. The key is Amazon Web Services (AWS). Jones highlighted AWS's growing revenue streams from AI and custom chips, alongside strong demand signals and an expanding backlog, as the core drivers of a bullish outlook. In other words, Amazon's massive investment—pegged by some as needing to reach $200 billion—isn't just spending; it's seen as a "necessary" strategic move to secure AWS's role as a foundational AI platform.

This isn't happening in a vacuum. Jones pointed to several developments that underscore just how hungry the market is for AI infrastructure, which in turn justifies the eye-watering investments from tech giants. He cited Anthropic's compute agreement with Google as one example, and also mentioned chipmaker Broadcom (AVGO) as a beneficiary of this trend.

The analyst also pointed to real-world use cases as evidence of continued momentum. He noted that companies like Uber (UBER) are already leveraging Amazon's custom chips, while Meta Platforms (META) continues to launch new AI models. These examples highlight that investment and tangible progress are spreading across the entire ecosystem, from cloud providers to application developers.

In the market's immediate reaction, the story was mixed. Alphabet shares were down 0.53% at $316.78, while Amazon.com shares were up 2.09% at $238.53 at the time of publication on Friday, according to market data.