So, how's the next iPhone looking? According to the early production numbers, it's off to a decent, if not explosive, start. Data from Counterpoint Research's Monthly Flagship Smartphone Display Tracker shows cumulative panel shipments for the Apple Inc. (AAPL) iPhone 17 series (and the iPhone Air) through April 2026 are running a bit ahead of the last couple of generations.
Shipments are up 2% compared to the iPhone 16 series over the same period last cycle, and 3% higher than the iPhone 15 series a year before that. It's a modest bump, but in a world where component costs—especially for memory—are a constant pressure, steady is good. It seems more buyers are opting for the pricier versions, which helps Apple's margins absorb those costs.
The Premium Mix Gets Even More Premium
Here's where it gets interesting. The shipment mix isn't just leaning toward the Pro models; it's practically falling over. Pro variants are expected to account for 66% of total iPhone 17 series panel shipments, which is roughly in line with the iPhone 16 Pro cycle.
But look inside that premium bucket: the standard iPhone 17 Pro is tracking at 28% of shipments, a slight dip from the 29% share its predecessor held. Meanwhile, the top-of-the-line iPhone 17 Pro Max is picking up that slack, accounting for 38% of shipments compared to 36% last time. So, the trend isn't just "people want the Pro." It's increasingly "people want the biggest, most expensive Pro." Apple's premiumization strategy is getting, well, more premium.
A Pause for the iPhone Air
Not every model is seeing growth. Panel shipments for the iPhone Air model stopped in December 2025 and make up just 7% of total shipments so far. This points to either more cautious demand expectations from Apple or a tighter allocation of supply as the company manages its broader portfolio. It's a smaller part of the story, but it shows Apple is being selective.
What's the Stock Doing?
Let's talk about the stock. As of this analysis, Apple shares were trading about 0.4% above its 20-day simple moving average but about 4.2% below its 100-day average. That split suggests some short-term stability within a softer intermediate-term trend. Over the past year, the stock is up over 13%, and it's sitting much closer to its 52-week high than its low.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 48.01, smack in the middle of neutral territory—no extreme signals there. The MACD, however, was telling a slightly more constructive story. It was above its signal line and posted a positive histogram, suggesting the recent downside pressure has been easing, even though the indicator itself remained negative. In plain English: the momentum might be starting to lean a bit bullish.
- Key Resistance: $255.00
- Key Support: $248.50
Earnings and What the Analysts Think
The next big date for investors is the estimated earnings report on April 30, 2026. Expectations are for growth:
- EPS Estimate: $1.93 (Up from $1.65 year-over-year)
- Revenue Estimate: $109.03 Billion (Up from $95.36 Billion year-over-year)
- Valuation: A P/E of 32.1x, which indicates Apple still commands a premium valuation compared to many peers.
The analyst consensus remains firmly in the "Buy" camp, with an average price target of $306.08. Recent actions include Wedbush maintaining an Outperform rating and a $350 target on March 31, and Morgan Stanley maintaining an Overweight rating with a $315 target on March 23.
Apple's ETF Problem (or Advantage)
Because Apple is such a giant, its stock is a massive component of many major exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This creates a kind of mechanical relationship with fund flows. Significant money moving into or out of these ETFs can trigger automatic buying or selling of Apple shares. Key funds with heavy exposure include:
Price Check
In premarket trading on Wednesday, Apple shares were up 0.19% at $254.27, according to market data.
