Back in March 2024, a relatively new player on the scene, Citrini Research, decided to make a big, thematic bet. The firm, founded by James van Geelen just the year before, constructed a long/short, market-neutral basket specifically designed to trade the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The logic was straightforward, if ambitious: go long on stocks expected to thrive under a Republican administration, and short those seen as vulnerable to Democratic policy priorities. This wasn't a bet on post-election fundamentals for individual companies, but a pure perception play on shifting political odds and the market's reaction to them.
The basket was massive, spanning roughly 120 names across themes like tariffs, energy, financial deregulation, healthcare, and immigration. It was a bet on policy momentum itself.
The Spectacular Rise and Hard Fall
For a while, it looked like a stroke of genius. According to a performance chart shared by Citrini, the basket ripped higher after the November 2024 election. The momentum carried into mid-to-late 2025, with the strategy peaking at a staggering return of over 220% since its inception in early 2024.
Then, in 2026, it all came undone. The trade reversed hard, giving back more than two-thirds of those peak gains. As of the recent update, the basket still shows a cumulative return of about 65.49% since early 2024. But the crucial part—the post-election "alpha," or the extra juice specifically attributed to the Trump trade—has been completely wiped out. The market giveth, and the market taketh away.
When Longs and Shorts Start Holding Hands
The most interesting part of this unwind is the convergence. In a basket of 120 names, you'd expect some divergence, some winners and losers based on their own stories. But the long and short legs moved toward each other in a strikingly synchronized fashion.
A user on X pointed out that Bitcoin (BTC) had followed a eerily similar path. Citrini Research replied with a note that underscores the macro nature of the move: "Crazy how close they've traded when you consider this is long/short on 120 names, maybe 5 of which have any exposure to crypto whatsoever."
That's the tell. This wasn't a basket being dragged down by a few bad crypto-adjacent picks. The repricing was broad-based, hitting policy-sensitive equities across the board. It suggests the market's collective mind changed about the future trajectory of regulation, spending, and priorities, not just about a few companies.
