So here's the scene Tuesday: markets were basically having an identity crisis. On one side, you had oil prices shooting up because, well, the Middle East is still a mess. On the other, you had tech stocks, the usual market darlings, getting knocked down a peg. The result was a lot of indecision, with major indexes barely budging in different directions.

The main driver was crude oil. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), tracked by the United States Oil Fund (USO), jumped 4.9% to $92.42 a barrel by midday. That's a staggering 40% gain since the start of the month. Brent crude wasn't far behind, up 4.2% to $104.14.

Why the surge? The hopeful chatter about a ceasefire seems to have been just that—chatter. Iran and Israel continued exchanging strikes, and a report suggested Saudi Arabia and the UAE might be edging closer to joining the conflict. This directly contradicted a claim from former President Donald Trump on Monday about "very good and productive conversations" for a resolution, which Iranian officials promptly denied.

This renewed uncertainty sent bond yields higher, reversing some of Monday's decline. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note climbed back to 4.39%, up about 4 basis points. The 2-year yield rose to 3.91%, and the 30-year touched 4.94%. With energy prices screaming higher, traders are now pricing in a stark reality: zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. That's a complete U-turn from the Fed's own guidance just last week, which still pointed to a cut this year.

Against this backdrop, U.S. stock performance was a study in contrasts. The S&P 500 inched up a mere 0.1% to 6,590. The Dow Jones Industrial Average did a bit better, adding 0.4% to 46,402, helped by defensive names like Walmart Inc. (WMT), which gained 2.4%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.1% to 24,172. The small-cap Russell 2000 actually outperformed its large-cap cousins, gaining 0.8% to 2,511.

Within the so-called Magnificent Seven, it was a rough day. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) dropped 2.4%, Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) fell 1%, and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) lost over 2%. The pressure came from rising real interest rates and growing questions about whether the massive capital spending on AI is sustainable in a world where energy costs are spiking.

Even the crypto market felt the chill. Bitcoin fell 1.9% to slip back below $70,000, weighed down by the same souring risk sentiment hitting tech stocks.

The economic data told a two-part story. The flash S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.4 in March, beating expectations. It looks like companies were stockpiling goods, likely fearing supply chain disruptions from the overseas conflict. However, the Services PMI fell to an 11-month low of 51.1, and the Composite PMI also dipped, signaling a broader softening in business activity outside the factory floor.

Tuesday's Performance In Major US Indices

Updated by 12:30 PM ET

The action in major ETFs mirrored their underlying indexes: the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) gained 0.1%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) rose 0.4%, the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) slid 0.1%, and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) climbed 0.8%.

Energy Leads, Software Names Hammered

The sector moves told the clearest story of the day. It was a classic tale of haves and have-nots, dictated by the price of oil.

The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) was the clear winner, gaining nearly 3%. The rally in crude lifted all boats in the energy complex. The SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) surged 4.2%, the biggest industry-level move of the session. The VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) climbed 2.8% as expectations for sustained high prices boosted drilling and services firms.

Materials also caught a bid, with the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) up about 2% and the SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) adding 2.8%.

On the losing side, technology struggled. The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) traded near flat but with a negative bias. The real pain was in software. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) plummeted 3.8%, making it the worst-performing industry ETF of the day. Big names got hit hard: Salesforce Inc. (CRM) slid more than 5%, while Oracle Corp. (ORCL) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) were down about 4% each.

Elsewhere, the private credit sector remained in focus. Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) fell 1.5% and Ares Management Corp. (ARES) slipped 0.4% after both firms became the latest asset managers to cap redemptions on their main private credit funds.

On the brighter side, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF) surged roughly 5% on reports that Japan's Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group is exploring an acquisition of the investment bank.

Tuesday's Russell 1000 Top Gainers

• Shift4 Payments soared 22.6% after it completed its acquisition of Worldline's North American operations. A vote of confidence from CEO Jared Isaacman, who bought shares on the open market near multi-year lows, added to the positive sentiment.
• Corning Incorporated jumped 9.6%. The company unveiled a new suite of AI-focused optical products, and Bank of America raised its price target to $144, citing a massive $10.3 billion revenue opportunity by 2030.
• Lumentum Holdings Inc. rallied 8.7% on its official inclusion in the S&P 500 index, which triggered buying from index-tracking funds.
• FMC Corporation gained 8.5% after its CEO confirmed the agrochemical firm has hired Goldman Sachs and Bank of America to explore strategic alternatives, which could include a sale of the company.
• Olin Corporation rose 7.5% after Citigroup raised its price target on the chlor-alkali producer, arguing that global supply disruptions are creating a structural advantage for North American manufacturers.

Tuesday's Russell 1000 Top Losers

• Concentrix Corp. cratered 23% after reporting first-quarter results. While revenue of $2.5 billion met expectations, earnings per share of $2.61 missed estimates, operating margins contracted, and its guidance for the current quarter came in below what analysts were expecting.
• Circle Internet Group Inc. fell 18.9%. The drop looked like profit-taking after a huge run-up this year, compounded by reports that ARK Invest sold nearly $6 million worth of shares. There's also growing concern that interest income from its USDC stablecoin may have peaked if the Fed starts cutting rates.
• Axon Enterprise dropped 10.1%, caught in the broader software selloff. Bank of America lowered its price target on the stock while maintaining a Buy rating.
• The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. sank 10% after confirming it is in early talks to acquire Spanish beauty group Puig Brands in a deal that could be worth around $40 billion. Investors are worried about the potential for dilution and the risks of integrating such a large acquisition.
• UiPath Inc. remained under pressure, down 8.9%, as the market continues to digest its recent earnings report where slower growth guidance overshadowed the company's first full-year GAAP profit.