Mosaic's Rare Earths Play: Turning Waste Into Critical Minerals in Brazil

MarketDash

Mar 11, 5:42 PM

The fertilizer giant is teaming up with Rainbow Rare Earths to build a facility that could transform mining waste into a key source of neodymium and praseodymium by 2030.

Key Points

Mosaic and Rainbow Rare Earths have completed a preliminary economic assessment for a rare earths processing facility in Uberaba, Brazil, targeting initial production in 2030.
The project aims to process 2.7 million tonnes of phosphogypsum annually to produce 1,900 tonnes of separated neodymium and praseodymium oxide, plus 600 tonnes of other medium/heavy rare earth products.
Mosaic stock rose over 6% on Wednesday, showing mixed technical signals with a neutral RSI but bearish MACD, while analysts maintain a generally positive outlook with a $34.21 average price target.
The initiative represents a strategic move to extract additional value from existing phosphate operations as Brazil emerges as a key rare earth player in the Americas.
The company's next earnings report is scheduled for May 5, 2026, with estimates showing lower EPS but higher revenue compared to previous expectations.

Get Market Alerts

Weekly insights + SMS alerts

Shares of The Mosaic Company (MOS) got a nice bump on Wednesday, climbing over 6%. Some of that might be tied to broader market jitters about the Strait of Hormuz closure potentially squeezing exports from Middle Eastern producers. But the fertilizer giant also had some genuinely interesting news of its own to share.

Mosaic, through a subsidiary, and its partner Rainbow Rare Earths Limited (RRRLF), have wrapped up a preliminary economic assessment and signed a joint project development agreement for something called the Uberaba rare earths project. It's in Minas Gerais, Brazil, and it's not your typical mining venture.

Here's the plan: they want to take a whole lot of phosphogypsum—that's a byproduct from phosphate fertilizer production—and turn it into something much more valuable. We're talking about 2.7 million tonnes of the stuff every year. The goal is to build a processing facility that starts construction in 2027, following more detailed studies. If all goes well, the first rare earth oxides could come out in 2030.

So what exactly would come out? The facility is projected to produce 1,900 tonnes per year of separated neodymium and praseodymium oxide. For those not deep in the periodic table, those are two of the most critical rare earth elements, essential for making the powerful magnets in everything from electric vehicles to wind turbines. On top of that, they expect another 600 tonnes of a product rich in samarium, europium, and gadolinium—the medium and heavy rare earth elements.

This isn't just about digging new holes. It's a clever bit of industrial alchemy, aiming to pull critical materials out of a waste stream from Mosaic's existing operations. Bruce Bodine, Mosaic's President and CEO, put it this way: "The Uberaba project brings together Mosaic's Brazilian operations with Rainbow's rare earth expertise. Together, we will evaluate the responsible recovery of critical materials from our existing phosphate operations. This initiative aligns with our strategy to unlock additional value from our existing assets."

In short, it's a strategic bet on Brazil becoming a major rare earth hub in this hemisphere, and on Mosaic getting more value out of the assets it already has.

What's the Stock Telling Us?

While the news was positive, the stock's technical picture is sending a slightly mixed message. As of Wednesday's close at $27.24, the share price is sitting just a hair (0.2%) below its 20-day simple moving average, which suggests some near-term softness. But it's still comfortably above (6.4%) its 100-day average, pointing to a healthier longer-term trend. Over the past year, shares are up about 14%, trading closer to their 52-week highs than lows.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 42.66, which is basically neutral territory—not overbought, not oversold. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator is negative and below its signal line, which technical analysts often read as bearish pressure. Put together, it suggests the momentum is a bit indecisive right now, and traders might want to watch for a clearer signal on direction.

On the chart, key resistance to watch is around $31.00, while support sits near $26.50.

What Are the Analysts Saying?

The broader analyst view remains constructive. The consensus rating is a Buy, with an average price target of $34.21. However, there's been some recent shuffling in individual forecasts.

Barclays downgraded the stock to Equal-Weight on March 3, though it kept its $31 target. ScotiaBank reiterated a Sector Outperform rating on March 2 but lowered its target to $35. RBC Capital maintained a Sector Perform rating on February 26 and cut its target to $28.

Looking ahead, the company's next scheduled financial update is on May 5, 2026. The current estimate is for earnings per share of 27 cents, which is down from a prior estimate of 49 cents. Revenue, however, is expected to climb to $2.81 billion from $2.62 billion. Based on these figures, the stock trades at a P/E of about 15.6x, which many would consider a fair valuation.

So, Mosaic is making a long-term bet on turning mining waste into critical minerals. The stock market gave it a thumbs up on the day, even as the technicals and analyst opinions show there's still plenty of debate about the near-term path.