So, here's the thing about inflation in February: it didn't move. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year over year, according to government data released Wednesday. That's exactly what it did in January, and exactly what economists thought it would do.

On a monthly basis, prices went up 0.3%, which is a tiny bit faster than the 0.2% increase in January, but still basically what everyone expected.

And if you strip out the noisy stuff like food and gas to look at "core" inflation? That held steady too, at 2.5% annually. Again, matching the previous month and forecasts.

But here's the catch, and it's a big one: all this data was collected before the war in Iran broke out. Since then, gasoline and diesel prices have shot up. So, the calm 2.4% headline number you're seeing today? It might be the last peaceful inflation report for a little while. The next one could start to show the fuel price shock working its way through the system.