Here's a funny thing about the gold market right now: the price keeps going up, but one of the groups that usually cheers it on is heading for the exits. Gold is up about 20% this year, which is the kind of move that typically gets ETF investors excited. When they get excited, they buy shares in funds like the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) or the iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and those funds have to go out and buy physical bullion to back the new shares. That buying then pushes the price up even more. It's a nice, self-reinforcing cycle.

Except this time, that's not happening. According to data cited by Bloomberg, total holdings in gold ETFs fell by almost 30 tons last week. That's the biggest weekly decline in more than two years. So, if the usual suspects aren't buying, who is? And what does it mean for the rally?

Dollar Weakness, Rate-Cut Bets Lift Gold

The simple answer to "what's pushing gold up?" seems to be a combination of a weaker U.S. dollar and investors betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. The dollar fell for a third straight session, partly because of a sharp drop in crude oil prices. That drop came after former President Trump suggested the Israel-Iran conflict might be winding down, with world leaders hinting they might step in to stabilize energy markets.

Lower oil prices do two things that gold likes. First, they take some pressure off inflation, which had been helping keep interest rates high. Second, and perhaps more importantly, they create a sweet spot for gold, according to Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. He suggested to Bloomberg that lower crude could keep inflation elevated but not so high that it stops the Fed from cutting rates. Since gold doesn't pay any interest, it tends to look more attractive when rates are expected to fall.

If ETFs Aren't Buying, Who Is?

So the macro story makes sense for higher prices. But the ETF flows tell a different story, which means other buyers must be stepping in. The demand for gold is a big, global pie with several slices.

One big slice is central banks. According to the World Gold Council's latest Gold Demand Trends report, central banks have been significant, steady buyers in recent years. Another slice is direct physical investment—people and institutions buying bars and coins. The report noted that total global gold demand exceeded 5,000 tonnes in 2025, with strong investment activity in this category.

Then there's the futures market, where hedge funds and other large speculators play. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows these traders held a net-long position of about 160,145 gold futures contracts as of early March. That's a slightly bullish position that rose a bit from the week before, but here's the kicker: it's still hovering near a two-year low. So, the big money in futures isn't exactly piling in aggressively either.

For now, the gold rally is marching to a different beat. It's being driven less by the ETF crowd and more by other, perhaps quieter, pockets of demand across the global market. Whether this makes the advance more stable or more fragile is the million-dollar—or perhaps the $2,400-an-ounce—question for the months ahead.