Here's a geopolitical puzzle for you: what if winning a conflict could give your rival a temporary financial boost, but losing it would hand them a much bigger strategic victory? That's essentially the argument former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo made this week regarding the U.S., Iran, and Russia.

Pompeo took to social media to say that yes, Russia might enjoy a short-term windfall from surging oil prices if a war with Iran heats up. But he argued that the real prize—and the real blow to Moscow—would come from the United States decisively toppling the Islamic Republic's capabilities. "When the US topples the Islamic Republic's capabilities, it will seriously damage Putin's geopolitical project," he wrote.

He framed the stakes in stark terms, suggesting the only people "rooting against" the United States in this scenario were "Putin, Xi, the Mullahs, & Tucker Carlson." His conclusion was a direct plea to his former colleagues: Washington "must get this right."

His post landed as oil markets were doing their best impression of a rollercoaster. Crude briefly climbed to around $119 a barrel—the highest since 2022—before hopes of de-escalation sent prices into a sharp retreat. At one point, WTI Crude futures had slid over 10%, pulling prices back down toward the mid-$80s.

Pompeo's commentary also referenced a recent report that revived a nagging concern: Russia could profit handsomely from higher oil export revenues while staying largely on the military sidelines. The report described Moscow's restrained response to the U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions. The Kremlin condemned strikes but offered no direct military help to Tehran, even as the crisis conveniently diverted global attention from Ukraine and lifted oil prices in a way that could directly aid Russia's war finances. It's the geopolitical equivalent of your rival's fight causing a gold rush in your backyard.

Pompeo's views on Vladimir Putin have notably evolved over the years. His assessment has shifted from recognizing a "shrewd" and "capable" adversary to labeling him a "dictator" and "thug" following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Back in December, he warned that how the U.S. handles Russia-Ukraine peace talks could shape American power and alliances "for decades to come." A settlement seen as a Russian victory, he argued, would severely damage U.S. interests.

This perspective is informed by his time in key national security roles. As CIA director and later secretary of state, he backed intelligence findings that Moscow interfered in U.S. elections, calling such conduct "unacceptable" in meetings with Russian officials.

So, the calculus Pompeo is presenting isn't just about the immediate battlefield or the oil market's daily gyrations. It's a longer game. The short-term pain of higher oil prices filling Russian coffers, he suggests, is worth enduring if the ultimate result is a crippling blow to an Iranian regime that is a key part of Putin's strategic ambitions. It's a reminder that in global power politics, the most expensive victory for your opponent might sometimes come with a temporary invoice paid to them.