Here's the situation for Kohl's Corporation (KSS): the stock has been having a rough 2026, a new CEO is just getting settled, and a whole lot of investors are betting it's going to get worse. That makes Tuesday morning's fourth-quarter earnings report a pretty interesting event.
Think of it as a make-or-break moment, but for a company that's already been breaking for a while. The stock is down about 33% this year, and over a third of its available shares are being shorted—meaning a significant chunk of the market is actively betting the price will fall further. Any good news could squeeze those short sellers and send the stock popping. Any bad news... well, you can imagine.
What the Analysts Are Expecting
The numbers on the table aren't great, but Kohl's has a habit of beating them. Analysts, according to market data, are looking for revenue of $5.14 billion. That's down from $5.40 billion in the same quarter last year. They're also expecting earnings per share of 85 cents, down from 95 cents a year ago.
Here's the twist: while the company missed revenue estimates last quarter, it has beaten them in seven of the past ten quarters. More impressively, it has beaten earnings per share estimates for four straight quarters and in eight of the last ten. So, the bar is set low, but Kohl's has a recent history of hopping over it.
The Real Story: Traffic, Leadership, and a Ton of Short Sellers
The numbers only tell part of the story. The bigger picture is about where shoppers are going (or not going). A recent report from Placer.ai highlights a brutal trend: consumers are ditching traditional department stores for off-price retailers like TJ Maxx, Marshalls, Ross, and Burlington.
In that grim landscape, Kohl's actually didn't fare the worst. Its foot traffic was down 5% in the fourth quarter. For context, visits to JCPenney were down 5.5% and to Macy's (M) were down 7.1%. So, it's losing, but it's losing slower than some of its direct competitors. In retail, that sometimes counts as a win.
Then there's the leadership question. Michael Bender was named the new CEO in November 2025. This will be one of his first major public reports since taking the helm. After the third quarter, he struck an optimistic note, saying, "We are pleased with Kohl's third quarter results, marking a third consecutive quarter of delivering top-line and bottom-line performance ahead of our expectations. These results are a direct reflection of the progress we are making against our 2025 initiatives."
Investors will be listening closely to see if that progress continued into the crucial holiday quarter or if the momentum stalled.
All of this is happening against a backdrop of extreme skepticism in the market. As mentioned, data shows a whopping 33.6% of Kohl's float is sold short. That's a huge number. It means the stock is primed for volatility. If Bender and team deliver a surprise beat and bullish commentary, short sellers might scramble to cover their positions, potentially driving the price up sharply. If they disappoint, the fall could be swift.
Where the Stock Stands
As of Monday, Kohl's stock was trading around $14.11, down nearly 7% for the day and 32.8% for the year. Its 52-week range is $6.04 to $25.22. So, while it's been a brutal year, the stock is still up about 19% over the past twelve months. It's a reminder of how wild the ride has been.
Tuesday's report isn't just about one quarter's sales and profit. It's a early report card for a new CEO, a test of whether the company can navigate a brutal shift in consumer habits, and a potential trigger event for a stock where a huge portion of the market is betting on failure. Grab some popcorn.
