So here's a thing about geopolitics: sometimes it's about missiles and treaties, and sometimes it's about who gets to fill up the gas tank. On Friday, President Donald Trump decided to turn the screws on Cuba's communist government, and he did it by going after the latter. He suggested the U.S. might even pursue a "friendly takeover" of the island, which is a phrase that does a lot of heavy lifting. It's not quite an invasion, but it's definitely not a handshake deal either.
The immediate mechanism is a fuel blockade. Trump told reporters Cuba's government is "in a big deal of trouble," arguing that Havana is running out of money and resources as Washington cuts off the energy taps. The idea, apparently, is to pressure the regime into negotiations by making everyday life increasingly difficult.
This isn't a new tactic, but it's being dialed up. Back in January, Trump signed an executive order that specifically halted fuel shipments to the island and moved to stop Venezuelan oil and financial support. The result? Cuban officials are reportedly scrambling with emergency measures. Estimates suggest the country has maybe six to seven weeks of fuel left before it risks widespread blackouts. Imagine trying to run a modern economy—or even just keep the lights on and water flowing—with that kind of countdown clock ticking.
A senior United Nations official underlined the point this week, warning that daily life in Cuba is "becoming fragile." The strains are showing up in healthcare, food distribution, and water services. It's the kind of slow-motion humanitarian squeeze that doesn't make for dramatic television but has very real consequences for the people living through it.
Meanwhile, the diplomatic dance continues in other corners. U.S. officials reportedly met with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro—the grandson of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro—during a regional conference attended by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Rodríguez Castro is believed to be linked to GAESA, a military-run conglomerate that controls a huge swath of Cuba's economy. So, it's a meeting with someone who might have both family connections and business clout, which is an interesting combination.
Tensions got another jolt recently from a deadly confrontation between Cuba's coast guard and a vessel carrying U.S. citizens and residents. At least four people were killed. Both governments have since called the episode "regrettable" and say they're cooperating to clarify what happened. It's the kind of incident that can quickly escalate, or at least add more friction to an already difficult relationship.
Put it all together, and Trump's "friendly takeover" comment starts to look less like an offhand remark and more like a signal of mounting pressure. The strategy seems to be a mix of economic strangulation through the fuel quarantine, diplomatic outreach to potential inside players, and managing the fallout from violent incidents. For Cuba, the question is how long the fuel lasts and what breaks first: the government's resolve or the population's patience.
