Here's a classic market puzzle: a company reports quarterly numbers that beat expectations, raises its dividend, and announces a massive new stock buyback program. Its stock jumps. Then, the next morning, it gives back a chunk of those gains for no immediately obvious reason. Welcome to the story of Salesforce Inc. (CRM) on Friday.
The stock edged lower in premarket trading, surrendering part of its post-earnings rally from the prior session. This happened despite the company delivering what looked, on paper, like a standout performance.
The Numbers Were Good. Really Good.
The rally on Thursday was the direct result of Salesforce's fourth-quarter results. Revenue came in at $11.2 billion, topping the consensus estimate of $11.18 billion. Adjusted earnings were $3.81 per share, which handily beat the estimate of $3.04. That's not a small beat; that's a blowout.
The company didn't stop there. It raised its quarterly dividend to 44 cents per share and launched a new $50 billion share repurchase program. For context, that buyback is larger than the market capitalization of many Fortune 500 companies. Looking ahead, first-quarter revenue guidance of $11.03–$11.08 billion also topped estimates, and the company projected fiscal 2027 revenue of $45.8–$46.2 billion.
So, with all that good news, why the pullback? Sometimes the market focuses on what's not said, or how things are said. And this quarter, the how might be more important than the what.
The Quietest Bull Signal in 22 Years
The most interesting analysis to come out of earnings didn't focus on the financials at all. It focused on the tone of CEO Marc Benioff during the earnings call. According to analysis by EMJ Capital's Eric Jackson, who has reviewed 22 years of Salesforce earnings calls, Benioff delivered the "quietest version of himself" ever measured.
Jackson's proprietary "Delta Score" for the call hit 2.5 out of 100—the lowest in the company's history. What does that mean? Benioff notably dropped his long-standing buzzwords like "inflection," "paradigm," and "revolution." His rhetoric was uncharacteristically restrained.
Jackson's thesis is that this is actually a powerful bullish indicator. "At tops, rhetoric rises while the business slows," he observed. "At bottoms, rhetoric cools while the business turns." The idea is that when a CEO stops needing to sell a grand vision and hype the future, it's often because the present business is fundamentally turning a corner and the numbers start to speak for themselves. This shift suggests Salesforce may be moving past a phase of defensive grandstanding and focusing on execution and a stabilizing bottom line.
Think of it this way: when things are going great, you don't have to keep telling everyone how great they are. The quiet confidence might be the highest-conviction signal of all.
