The Supreme Court punted on a major decision during its last hearing, declining to rule on President Donald Trump's use of emergency powers to slap tariffs on imports under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The delay leaves billions of dollars in trade duties hanging in legal limbo.
Trump previously warned that an unfavorable Supreme Court ruling could trigger massive economic fallout for the federal government, with potential repayments potentially climbing into the trillions. That's not exactly subtle pressure on the justices.
With no date scheduled for the next hearing, JPMorgan analysts Amy Ho and Joyce Chang pointed out that the Supreme Court typically saves its biggest, most contentious decisions for the end of its term in June. Translation: we're in for a long wait while the justices deliberate.
Bettors Are Betting Against Trump
Prediction markets are painting a grim picture for the administration. Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows over $4.9 million has been wagered on whether the Supreme Court will uphold Trump's tariffs.
The consensus? Most bettors think the Court will strike them down. The current odds show a 68% probability that the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs. The "Yes" option sits at just 32% probability, down by 25%.
Scaramucci Joins the Skeptics
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, is putting his own prediction on the table: a 70% chance the Supreme Court eliminates Trump's tariffs entirely. His reasoning? Imposing tariffs without congressional approval essentially amounts to an unauthorized tax, which is constitutionally problematic.
Trump has repeatedly warned about the potential for an "economic emergency" if the Court rules against his tariff authority, raising the stakes for what's already a high-profile legal battle.
Corporate America Fights Back
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) filed a lawsuit in December challenging the tariffs and demanding a complete refund of all duties collected under the IEEPA. They're not alone. Since late October, several companies have filed similar lawsuits in U.S. trade court, including Revlon Consumer Products Corp. and Kawasaki Motors Manufacturing Corp., all contesting Trump's legal authority to impose these levies.
