The 2028 presidential election won't happen for more than two years, but that hasn't stopped bettors from throwing down serious money on who they think will emerge as the Democratic nominee. And right now, if you believe prediction markets, California Gov. Gavin Newsom is the one to beat.

Newsom's Early Lead

According to data from Kalshi, the federally authorized prediction market platform, more than $42.6 million has been bet on the contract asking who will become the 2028 Democratic nominee for president. That's a lot of conviction for something that's still years away.

Newsom sits comfortably at the top with a 33% probability of securing the nomination. That's a commanding lead in a crowded field of potential contenders.

Behind him, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York holds second place with a 10% probability. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro comes in third at 9%, showing a recent uptick of 3 percentage points.

Further back in the pack, former Vice President Kamala Harris, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, and Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff are all tied at 6% probability.

The Republican Side

It's not just Democrats getting attention from prediction market traders. Vice President J.D. Vance has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination.

More interesting: Vance also leads the betting on who will actually win the 2028 presidential election outright. Newsom places second in that broader contest with a 20% probability of becoming president.

Newsom's Trump Problem

Part of what makes Newsom an intriguing candidate is his willingness to go after President Donald Trump directly. He's called Trump "one of the most destructive presidents and human beings in my lifetime," which is about as unambiguous as political criticism gets.

The California governor has particularly targeted Trump's energy policies. He's blasted the administration's anti-EV position, arguing it's effectively handing China dominance in the electric vehicle industry.

Newsom previously voiced frustration over the rollback of Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards under Trump. He's also criticized Trump's push to expand offshore drilling in California, calling it a plan "overwhelmingly opposed by members of all political parties" in the state.

Whether this confrontational approach helps or hurts Newsom's national ambitions remains to be seen. But if prediction markets are any indication, bettors think he's got a real shot at leading the Democratic ticket in 2028.