If you want to know whether a Cabinet secretary is in trouble, forget the cable news pundits. Check the prediction markets instead. And right now, the betting public thinks Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem might not make it through the year.

The Odds Keep Rising

Polymarket bettors are giving Noem 56% odds of departing the Trump administration in 2025, the highest among all Cabinet members. That puts her just ahead of Attorney General Pamela Bondi at 50%. More tellingly, Noem's departure odds have jumped 12 percentage points since the start of the year.

Another market on Polymarket gets even more specific: there's a 39% chance Noem will be the first Cabinet official to exit, up from just 13% in early January. That's a remarkable surge in betting sentiment.

For context, Polymarket runs on the Polygon (POL) blockchain and lets users trade "Yes" and "No" shares using USDC (USDC) stablecoin. When the market resolves, the winning shares pay out $1 USDC each.

Over on Kalshi, another prediction market platform, traders see a 46% chance Noem leaves before July 1. There's even a 30% probability she's gone before March 1.

Democrats Threaten Impeachment

The betting spike isn't happening in a vacuum. Democratic lawmakers are calling for Noem's resignation after a DHS agent fatally shot Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old ICU nurse, during protests in Minneapolis.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) warned that Democrats would begin impeachment proceedings against Noem if Trump doesn't fire her "immediately." Even Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), who has praised Trump's immigration policies, accused Noem of "betraying" the Department of Homeland Security's core mission.

Noem has defended the shooting, describing Pretti as an armed suspect who "violently resisted" when officers attempted to disarm him.

Internal Tensions Mount

Beyond the external political pressure, Noem reportedly faces friction inside the administration. She's been leading President Donald Trump's deportation efforts, but reports suggest a strained relationship with Tom Homan, the White House border czar whom Trump sent to Minneapolis after two U.S. citizens were killed in a shooting.

Noem served in the House of Representatives from 2011 to 2019 and was Governor of South Dakota from 2019 to 2025 before joining the Cabinet.