The 2028 presidential election feels like a lifetime away, but prediction markets are already handicapping the Republican field. And right now, it's not even close.

Vance Dominates Early Betting

According to data from Kalshi, a federally authorized prediction platform, more than $12.5 million has been wagered on the question of who will become the 2028 Republican nominee for president. Vice President J.D. Vance commands the board with a 47% probability, up 1% from recent levels.

That's a comfortable lead over the competition. Marco Rubio, currently serving as U.S. Secretary of State, comes in second with a 16% probability, though his odds have slipped 2%. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis holds third place with just 4% odds, a notable drop from his prominence during the 2024 cycle.

Leading for the Full Prize Too

Vance isn't just ahead for the GOP nomination. He's also the betting favorite to win the 2028 presidential race outright. California Governor Gavin Newsom trails in second with 20% odds to become the next president.

Newsom might get some establishment backing if he runs. Anthony Scaramucci, the former Trump administration official who's become a vocal critic, recently said he might support Newsom in 2028.

Meanwhile, former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon is reportedly considering his own run. That could create an interesting dynamic within the MAGA movement, particularly if it sets up a clash with Vance.

Of course, we're still years out. But if you believe prediction markets, the Republican field is already Vance's to lose.