There's a new way to profit from Elon Musk's tendency to overpromise: bet against him. Traders on platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are discovering that wagering on Musk not delivering on his boldest claims can be remarkably lucrative.
The bets cover everything from Tesla's robotaxi rollout in California to the launch of humanoid robots and even Musk's threat to create a third political party in the United States. Spoiler alert: the skeptics are winning.
The numbers tell the story. On Friday, Kalshi odds showed just a 14.5% chance that Tesla will launch its humanoid robot, Optimus, within the year. Polymarket priced a 68% chance that Tesla will roll out unsupervised Full Self-Driving by June 30, despite Musk previously suggesting a 2025 timeline. Meanwhile, Kalshi showed 100% odds after Musk announced a day earlier that human safety monitors would be removed from robotaxi operations in Texas.
David Bensoussan, a Polymarket user, exemplifies the strategy. He wagered nearly $10,000 that Musk wouldn't follow through on his threat to form a new political party during a disagreement with President Donald Trump. When Musk didn't follow through, Bensoussan pocketed a 10% return. Across 12 prediction markets related to Musk or Tesla, he's made more than $36,000 on bets that have reached resolution.
Despite Musk's history of unfulfilled promises, his fan base remains strong. But prediction markets are now testing the validity of his claims in real time as these platforms grow in popularity. Interestingly, Musk's artificial intelligence company, xAI, has integrations with both Kalshi and Polymarket. Both platforms feature dozens of Musk-related topics at any given time, far surpassing the interest in other public figures.
Prediction markets have seen a surge in interest since 2024, when a federal appeals court cleared the way for "event contracts" such as betting on election outcomes.
