When Jim Cramer calls something "the real deal," people tend to pay attention. And on Thursday, the CNBC personality had some pointed words about Tesla Inc. (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk's legal battle with OpenAI.

A Lawsuit That Could Complicate IPO Dreams

"This Musk suit against OpenAI is the real deal — and not a good one for OpenAI if and when it wants to go public," Cramer wrote on X. Translation: If OpenAI's banking on a splashy public listing someday, this lawsuit is exactly the kind of baggage you don't want in your prospectus.

Cramer didn't stop there. He suggested OpenAI might need to complete a substantial private fundraising round before the trial kicks off, pointing out that Musk has "unlimited firepower" for a prolonged legal fight. That's not the kind of opponent you want when you're trying to convince investors everything's smooth sailing.

The Trial Starts In April

A federal judge has scheduled the trial to begin April 27. Musk is suing OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and other defendants, including Microsoft Corp (MSFT), which has become deeply intertwined with OpenAI's operations.

The core allegation? Musk claims OpenAI ditched its founding nonprofit, public-benefit mission and misled him as it transformed into a for-profit operation with massive financial connections to Microsoft. According to the lawsuit, these changes violated the principles that convinced Musk to fund and co-found the organization in the first place.

Microsoft first invested in OpenAI back in 2019 and has since poured billions into the company. Following a restructuring last year, Microsoft became OpenAI's largest stakeholder. Now it's also named as a defendant in Musk's lawsuit.

How Musk Went From Founder To Rival

Here's the backstory: Musk was one of OpenAI's original founders in 2015 and its biggest early financial backer, contributing tens of millions before walking away in 2018. OpenAI then shot to worldwide fame after launching ChatGPT in 2022, fundamentally changing how people think about AI.

Musk, meanwhile, launched his own AI startup called xAI, positioning it as a different approach to artificial intelligence development. So this lawsuit isn't just about money or principles; it's also about competing visions for AI's future.

Prediction Markets Weigh In

If you want to know what people really think will happen, follow the money. On Kalshi, a prediction market exchange, traders are increasingly backing Musk to win. At the time of writing, the market shows a 57% probability that Musk will prevail in his lawsuit against OpenAI, with trading volume topping $30,000.

That's more than just idle speculation. When people are putting real money on an outcome, it tends to reflect a collective assessment of the case's strength. And right now, the crowd thinks Musk has better than even odds.