If you're looking for someone who still believes in Bitcoin (BTC), Mike Novogratz has entered the chat. The Galaxy Digital (GLXY) CEO thinks crypto's miserable 2025 has actually set the stage for a monster 2026—but not before comparing this year to Apollo 13, where the mission failed spectacularly but at least everyone survived.
From Moon Mission to Survival Mode
Speaking on Anthony Scaramucci's "All Things Markets" podcast, Novogratz laid out why Bitcoin's underperformance against gold and silver this year might be exactly what the market needed. The year started with sky-high predictions and moonshot expectations, but Bitcoin never left the launchpad.
"We were set up super bowled up at the beginning of 2025. We're going to the moon, and it stalled," Novogratz explained. "It was like Apollo 13. We basically got the command module back intact."
That spectacular failure reset sentiment and flushed out leveraged longs. Now retail interest is dead, Google searches for Bitcoin are near all-time lows, and most professionals are positioned defensively heading into 2026. For Novogratz, that extreme negativity is a contrarian indicator—when everyone's given up, that's when things get interesting.
Trump Wants 1% Rates. Seriously.
Here's where things get wild. Both Novogratz and Scaramucci expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively in 2026, driven by President Donald Trump's stated goal of getting interest rates down to 1%—what Scaramucci describes as recession-level policy, except without the recession.
Trump is apparently interviewing Fed chair candidates this week and asking them point-blank whether 100 basis point cuts are on the table. Candidates including Christopher Waller, Kevin Warsh, and Kevin Hassett are all getting the same question: how willing are you to slash rates?
Novogratz invoked the old Goldman Sachs wisdom: "Don't fight the Fed. If you're telling me the Fed's coming down, I don't want to fight the Fed. I'm long. We're positioned long."
The Dollar Trade and the Yen Explosion
Novogratz's favorite macro trade for 2026 is shorting the dollar as the Fed cuts rates and a new dovish Fed chair takes over. He predicts the Euro climbs from 1.18 to 1.30 over the year, with the Australian dollar also gaining as global liquidity expands.
But the really interesting play is the yen carry trade. This is where investors borrow in yen at near-zero rates to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. If Japan keeps raising rates to stop capital from fleeing, that trade could explode.
Dollar-yen is currently around 157, but Novogratz sees it hitting 200 by the end of 2026 as Japanese investors bail on rising domestic rates. For context, the best currency trade of 2025 was shorting yen against the Mexican peso, which delivered 20% plus another 7% in carry. That trade likely continues.
A weaker yen means more global liquidity flooding into risk assets—and historically, that's been excellent for Bitcoin.
Trump's Win-Win Setup
Scaramucci laid out an interesting scenario where Trump benefits regardless of how his tariff policies play out. Inflation is trending down while the AI boom accelerates productivity gains.
If Trump wins the tariff fight, he gets fiscal rebates. If he loses, markets rally on more cash flow. Either way, the AI infrastructure buildout—including massive data center construction—continues driving productivity and economic growth.
It's a heads-I-win, tails-you-lose scenario for the administration, at least according to Scaramucci's analysis.
