The IPO That Could Change Everything

When Elon Musk confirmed that SpaceX could go public in 2026, he set up what might be the most anticipated IPO in years. Jay Woods, Chief Market Strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, thinks the offering could fundamentally shift market dynamics—and he's watching closely to see where it lists.

"I hope it happens at the New York Stock Exchange. I doubt it will," Woods told MarketDash.

But the listing venue matters less than what comes after. Woods believes a SpaceX IPO could be the catalyst that convinces other massive private companies to finally take the plunge into public markets.

"What that could hopefully do is get people at OpenAI to say let's see how it goes," Woods explained.

The timing remains uncertain. Woods suspects that if SpaceX does go public in 2026, it'll happen in the second half of the year. And if it goes well? That's when things get interesting.

"That could really open the floodgates. If this goes and goes well, the optimism that you see in historical bull runs will be at a new level."

The 2027 IPO Avalanche

Woods envisions a scenario where a successful SpaceX debut triggers a cascade of high-profile IPOs from top private companies. Not all of them need to go public right now—the private markets have been generous—but a strong SpaceX performance could change the calculus.

"I see something like that coming in 2027, and that will be where we get a little euphoric, and this bull run will go back to stampeded mode instead of just grazing out the pasture for now."

That's quite an image: the current bull market peacefully grazing versus a full stampede driven by IPO mania. It's the kind of market transformation that doesn't happen often, but when it does, it can define an entire investment era.

What About Tesla?

Woods recently named Tesla Inc. (TSLA) as one of his top Magnificent 7 picks for 2026. So here's the obvious question: Would a SpaceX IPO hurt Tesla by pulling away investors and Musk enthusiasts?

Woods calls it a great question—and the answer is more nuanced than you might think.

"A lot of people don't realize that Tesla doesn't have any money invested in SpaceX," Woods said. "So people who invest in Elon Musk are also going to want to go to SpaceX."

The two companies are completely separate financially, which means investors wanting exposure to both will need to hold both stocks. Woods hopes that Musk fans have deep enough pockets for both positions, but acknowledges the potential for short-term pain.

"It could have an initial downdraft because people are selling Tesla to buy SpaceX."

But beyond that initial turbulence, Woods sees the SpaceX IPO as potentially positive for Tesla. A successful offering would demonstrate continued strong demand for Musk-related ventures, which could ultimately serve as a tailwind for the electric vehicle maker.

In other words, short-term headache, long-term validation. It's the kind of trade-off that long-term Tesla investors might be willing to accept—especially if SpaceX's debut really does open those floodgates.