Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is about to report fourth quarter delivery numbers, and if Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster is right, they're going to be pretty ugly. But in a twist that says a lot about how the Tesla story has evolved, he doesn't think anyone will care that much.

The Delivery Slowdown

Munster is projecting around 415,000 deliveries for the fourth quarter. That's down 16% compared to last year's Q4 figure of 495,570, and it falls well short of the Street consensus of roughly 449,000 units. For context, Tesla posted a record 497,099 deliveries in the third quarter, but that number came with a giant asterisk: the U.S. federal tax credit expired on September 30, the final day of the quarter.

So what happened? A bunch of customers who were on the fence likely pulled forward their purchases to snag the credit before it vanished. That created an artificial spike in Q3 that was always going to leave a hole in Q4. Munster's estimate accounts for exactly that dynamic.

"We believe growth in the business was similar from September to December after adjusting for the impact of the tax credit sunset in September," Munster explained.

There's actually a silver lining buried in the numbers. According to Cox Automotive, U.S. electric vehicle sales overall are expected to drop 30% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. If Tesla's deliveries only fall 16%, that suggests the company is actually gaining market share while its competitors struggle even more.

Why Delivery Misses Might Not Sting Anymore

In past years, missing delivery estimates was a big deal for Tesla. The stock would swing wildly on the news. But Munster thinks that era might be ending. Analysts and investors are increasingly focused on Tesla's artificial intelligence ambitions—Full Self-Driving, the robotaxi program, and the Optimus humanoid robot—rather than how many Model 3s rolled off the lot last quarter.

"Investors are likely to look past any December quarter delivery miss, as the results should suggest the auto business is beginning to stabilize," Munster wrote.

The shift in focus reflects a broader revaluation of what Tesla actually is. Munster points out that Tesla currently trades at a market cap of $1.6 trillion, which seems absurdly high if you're just valuing it as a car company. But if you see it as a leader in physical AI—machines that move around and do things in the real world—suddenly that number starts to make more sense.

"I see that target closer to $4T than $1T," Munster said, describing what he thinks Tesla should be worth given its position in physical AI.

Looking Ahead to 2026

After the Q4 delivery report drops, Munster says the conversation will quickly shift to expectations for 2026. He's predicting flat to 5% year-over-year growth in deliveries, which is considerably more conservative than the Street consensus of 13% growth. For full year 2025, he expects Tesla will finish down around 8%.

But here's the thing: Munster doesn't think Tesla needs to knock it out of the park on the delivery front next year. "In the end, all Tesla needs to do next year is show that deliveries have stabilized," he said.

Looking further out, he believes Tesla can eventually return to 15% or higher annual delivery growth, particularly as traditional automakers pull back from their EV investments. The stock has already been outperforming the Nasdaq over the last six months and since the company reported Q3 deliveries on October 2, suggesting investors are already betting on this narrative.

The bottom line? Tesla's quarterly delivery numbers used to be the whole story. Now they're increasingly becoming a footnote to the main event: whether the company can execute on its AI vision. That's a profound shift, and if Munster is right, this week's delivery miss won't matter nearly as much as it would have a year or two ago.