Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with $90,000 on Monday morning before promptly retreating to the $87,000 range, leaving the market to debate whether even a weak bounce is too much to hope for right now.
The Dead Cat Bounce Setup
Crypto chart analyst Ali Martinez suggests Bitcoin might see a short-term bounce fueled by extreme fear and oversold conditions—the classic ingredients for what traders call a "dead cat bounce" after a sustained decline. But the underlying data doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Net capital flows have gone negative for the first time in nearly two years, sinking below –$4.5 billion. Bitcoin ETFs have hemorrhaged nearly $1 billion over the past two weeks, signaling that institutional players are pulling back. Martinez warned that any near-term rally is likely powered by leverage rather than genuine spot demand, which means late buyers could easily get trapped before another drop.
Triangle Pattern Points to Volatility
On the four-hour chart, Martinez noted Bitcoin is consolidating within a triangle pattern, hinting at a potential 15% swing in either direction. Meanwhile, Bitcoin network activity has plunged 42.6% since 2021, reflecting its evolution from a peer-to-peer payment system to a store-of-value asset.
The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that Bitcoin's $3,000 tumble in just six hours came from the liquidation of roughly $100 million in leveraged long positions right after prices hit $90,000.
Still, trader Jelle sees similarities to prior local bottoms—sideways action above key support, bullish divergence on the three-day chart, and a bullish three-day MACD crossover. The question: is Bitcoin gearing up to recover, or just setting up for another disappointment?
