The Private Sector Is Booming. Allegedly.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants you to know things are going great. Really great. In a post on X this Tuesday, he declared that "the private economy is booming under" President Donald Trump, pointing to GDP growth that excludes government activity jumping 4.7% at an annualized rate over the past two quarters.

This represents "the exact opposite of what happened under Biden," according to Bessent, who argued that the previous administration's growth was primarily fueled by government spending expansion, which "contributed to historic inflation and depressed living standards."

Bessent frames the latest data as evidence of a fundamental shift in how the economy is growing, with private-sector momentum now driving the train instead of government largesse. He suggests this "current Trump-led surge" points toward better labor market conditions in the coming months.

Trump Takes His Victory Lap

Earlier this week, Trump celebrated after third-quarter GDP figures came in at 4.3%, well above expectations. He posted on Truth Social that "60 of 61 Bloomberg economists got it wrong," crediting the performance to "good government and tariffs."

It's a nice narrative. There's just one problem: not everyone agrees the numbers mean what the administration thinks they mean.

The Skeptics Weigh In

Michael Pearce of Oxford Economics sees the GDP surge differently. He argues it was "primarily driven by temporary factors, such as a rise in defense spending and a big contribution from net trade." In other words, the kind of one-time boosts that don't necessarily tell you much about underlying economic health.

Pearce also pointed out the growing divide in consumer spending power, noting that "The K-shaped consumer is alive and well"—meaning affluent households are doing fine while low-income families struggle.

Then there's Heather Long, Chief Economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, who suggests Trump's tariffs and trade wars may have artificially inflated GDP by at least a percentage point. "Artificially low imports and 'high' exports did make GDP look better," she explained. When companies rush to import goods before tariffs hit or shift trade flows to avoid them, it creates temporary distortions that juice the numbers without reflecting genuine economic strength.

So yes, the economy grew faster than expected. Whether that's a sustainable boom driven by private-sector vitality or a temporary spike inflated by defense spending and trade tricks depends on who you ask. And in Washington, everyone has an answer.