Deepwater Asset Management's Gene Munster isn't exactly bullish on Tesla Inc. (TSLA) delivery numbers for next year. In fact, he's predicting the electric vehicle maker will miss Wall Street's expectations by a pretty significant margin.

The Delivery Reality Check

In a blog post published Thursday, Munster laid out his forecast: Tesla deliveries will be flat to up 5% next year. That's a far cry from what analysts are expecting, which is growth of around 16%. It's the kind of gap that would normally send investors scrambling, but Munster argues the delivery figures aren't really the point anymore.

His take is that Tesla's investment case is "built on FSD, Robotaxi and Optimus," not on how many cars roll off the lot. That's probably a good framing for Tesla bulls to adopt, especially considering the company's November sales in the U.S. dropped 23%, hitting a near four-year low.

Robotaxis Rolling Out in Five Cities

Here's where things get more interesting. Munster predicts Tesla will launch driverless Robotaxi operations in five major cities next year. "We believe Robotaxi will be approved without a safety driver by the end of the year," he wrote. Tesla recently cleared the self-certification process for its Robotaxi operations in Nevada, which is a start.

CEO Elon Musk has been saying driverless operations would begin in Austin by year-end, a commitment he recently reaffirmed. Munster thinks Tesla will go beyond Austin, expanding driverless Robotaxis to Dallas, San Francisco, Phoenix, and Las Vegas as well. That's an ambitious rollout, assuming everything goes according to plan.

Waymo Hitting Its Stride

While Tesla works on getting its Robotaxis street-ready, Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) (GOOG)-backed Waymo is already operating at scale. Munster expects Waymo to hit the 1 million rides-per-week mark next year. "At 1m rides per week, Waymo would capture about 1.3% of annual rides in the US," Munster noted, adding that the autonomous vehicle sector is still in its early stages.

Waymo recently hit 450,000 rides per week and shared that it had reached 14 million paid Robotaxi rides for the year. Those are real numbers from actual operations, which gives Waymo a head start in the race toward commercializing autonomous transportation.

The big picture here is that while Tesla's traditional vehicle delivery business might be slowing down, the autonomous future both companies are betting on is accelerating. Whether Tesla can close the operational gap with Waymo in 2025 will be one of the more fascinating storylines in tech.

Price Action: TSLA declined 0.30% to $445.54 during pre-market trading.