Here's a spicy prediction to end the year: Anthony Scaramucci thinks there's a better-than-even chance that the Supreme Court will swat down President Donald Trump's tariffs. And if that happens, the market implications could be significant.

The Constitutional Question Nobody Asked For

Speaking with CNBC on Wednesday, Scaramucci—the SkyBridge Capital founder who briefly served as White House Communications Director—laid out his reasoning. His argument boils down to a constitutional principle Americans learned in grade school: no taxation without representation.

"There's gonna be a big discussion end of the year on tariffs, and I'm going to say 70% that the Supreme Court rules those back," Scaramucci said. The problem, as he sees it, is that Trump imposed these tariffs without congressional approval. And tariffs are effectively taxes.

He added that Trump doesn't have "the authority" to impose tariffs, which are effectively a tax, without the Congress, and one can't have taxation in the United States without representation."

The track record so far supports his skepticism. Trump has already lost in district court and the appeals court, suggesting the legal argument isn't resonating with judges. Scaramucci pointed to these losses as evidence that the justices won't be easily convinced either.

What This Means For Your Portfolio

Here's where it gets interesting for investors. Companies across America have been budgeting for 10-15% tariff costs. If the Supreme Court rules those tariffs unconstitutional, those expenses suddenly disappear. Scaramucci suggests this could trigger a "big liquidity push" in markets next year—essentially, money companies expected to send to the Treasury stays in their pockets instead.

There's a catch, though. Scaramucci notes the Supreme Court probably won't order refunds for tariffs already paid. The government gets to keep that revenue. And if Trump tries to go through Congress to get his tariffs the proper way, those rates might not stay at 10-15%.

The Administration Isn't Worried

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent isn't losing sleep over potential court losses. He's expressed confidence the administration can maintain its tariff policies regardless of what the Supreme Court decides, pointing to various sections of the 1962 Trade Act that give the president broad authority over import duties.

This sets up an interesting policy divide. Scaramucci has been consistently critical of Trump's trade approach, previously blaming these policies for rising inflation and weakening business and consumer demand. Meanwhile, the administration argues it has the legal tools to keep tariffs in place no matter what.

Four Paths Forward

As 2025 approaches, Oxford Economics recently mapped out four potential tariff scenarios: everything from maintaining the current approach to an all-out trade war with China. Each path carries distinct implications for inflation, employment, and financial markets. The analysis emphasizes that regardless of whether Trump escalates or backs down, trade policy remains a powerful force shaping the economy.

Price Action: On a year-to-date basis, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, climbed 16.83% and 22.50%, respectively.