If you're waiting for mortgage rates to nosedive after this week's Federal Reserve meeting, you might want to get comfortable. Economists and housing forecasters say borrowers are more likely to see a slow, uneven drift lower rather than any dramatic relief.

The Market Already Saw This Coming

The Fed is widely expected to deliver a quarter-point cut at its December 9-10 meeting, with futures markets putting the odds near 90% according to Reuters. That would bring the federal funds rate to roughly 3.5% to 3.75%.

But here's the thing: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has already eased to about 6.2%, its lowest level in weeks and down from roughly 6.7% a year ago, according to Freddie Mac. As the Associated Press notes, rates have been "mostly falling since late July on expectations of a Fed rate cut." Translation? Mortgage costs often move ahead of the central bank rather than waiting around for the official announcement.

What Powell Says Matters More Than the Cut Itself

Whether rates drop further depends largely on how the market interprets Fed Chair Jerome Powell's guidance. An AP preview published Tuesday says the Fed is "likely to lower borrowing costs this week, but follow-up rate cuts face longer odds," while a Reuters poll of more than 100 economists points to a single quarter-point move coupled with cautious messaging about 2026.

Here's why that matters: 30-year mortgages track the 10-year Treasury yield and investor expectations more than the Fed's short-term rate. Bond traders may have already priced in this cut, which means limited additional relief for borrowers in the immediate aftermath. Remember the refinancing boom in September? That happened as mortgage rates fell ahead of an earlier Fed cut, not after it.

Don't Expect a Quick Return to Pandemic-Era Loans

Major forecasters see a long glide path ahead. Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research group now projects 30-year rates will end 2025 around 6.3% and only slip to about 5.9% by the end of 2026.

Bank of America's Aditya Bhave, speaking to MarketDash in October, said he sees something closer to 5% as the level needed to truly "unfreeze" home sales stuck near post-2008 lows. In the near term, that suggests any post-meeting drop in mortgage rates is likely to be measured in tenths of a percentage point over the coming weeks, not a rapid return to the ultra-cheap loans of the pandemic era.