Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is serving up some optimistic economic forecasts just in time for the holidays. Speaking on NBC's "Meet The Press" Sunday, he defended the Trump administration's economic record and declared that Americans are finally catching a break on prices.

The Most Affordable Turkey in Four Years

"We are starting to see the affordability," Bessent said, pointing to improvements in home sales, gasoline prices, and expected declines in healthcare costs. But his headline claim centered on the Thanksgiving table itself.

"We're having Thanksgiving week. This will be the lowest cost for a Thanksgiving dinner in four years," he announced, highlighting that "Turkey prices are down 16%."

Bessent pushed back hard against suggestions that inflation has ticked higher recently. "Inflation hasn't gone up," he insisted, arguing instead that Americans remain "traumatized" by the price surges they endured during former President Joe Biden's term.

In a particularly eyebrow-raising claim, Bessent suggested geography plays a role in what you pay at the grocery store. He referenced a Council of Economic Advisers study, telling consumers the best inflation-fighting strategy might be to "move from a blue state to a red state," since inflation in Democrat-run states runs "half a percent higher."

Looking ahead, Bessent promised continued relief. "Some are going to come down in weeks. Some are going to come down in months," he said of various price categories.

Economists Sound the Alarm

Not everyone shares Bessent's rosy outlook. While the Consumer Price Index did show some cooling—rising just 0.3% month-over-month in September compared to 0.4% in August—prominent economists are warning against premature celebration.

Economist Peter Schiff slammed President Donald Trump for prematurely taking "credit for eliminating inflation" while Americans still struggle with elevated prices. Schiff went further, warning that "Not only is inflation not dead," but the average rate under Trump could actually exceed Biden's numbers, thanks to the administration's aggressive tariff policies.

Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi echoed these concerns, stating bluntly: "Inflation is uncomfortably high and is set to accelerate further in the coming months." He pointed to Trump's tariffs as a key driver pushing prices higher across multiple product categories.

So is your Thanksgiving dinner really cheaper, or are we just comparing it to an exceptionally expensive baseline? The answer might depend on which economist you ask—and which state you're shopping in.