Target Corporation (TGT) is about to give investors a look under the hood when it reports third-quarter results before Wednesday's opening bell. The question on everyone's mind: Can the Minneapolis-based retailer keep the momentum going?
Wall Street analysts are expecting earnings of $1.71 per share, which would represent a decline from the $1.85 per share Target posted in the same quarter last year. The consensus revenue estimate sits at $25.29 billion, compared to $25.67 billion in last year's third quarter.
Target's recent track record shows it knows how to beat expectations. Back in August, the company delivered second-quarter adjusted earnings of $2.05 per share, edging past the analyst consensus of $2.03. Revenue came in at $25.21 billion, down 0.9% year over year but still ahead of the Street's $24.93 billion estimate.
Shares closed at $88.53 on Tuesday, up a modest 0.1%.
What the Smart Money Is Saying
Here's where things get interesting. Some of Wall Street's most accurate analysts have been recalibrating their expectations heading into the print. We're talking about analysts with accuracy rates ranging from 62% to 76%, so their moves carry weight.
Most recently, Telsey Advisory Group's Joseph Feldman maintained a Market Perform rating on November 14, keeping his price target at $110. Feldman has a 66% accuracy rate on his calls.
JP Morgan's Christopher Horvers, who boasts a 74% accuracy rate, kept his Neutral rating but trimmed his price target from $117 to $100 on November 10. That's a meaningful haircut and suggests some caution about near-term prospects.
BTIG's Robert Drbul jumped into coverage on October 15 with a Neutral rating. This analyst has hit the mark 62% of the time in the past.
Evercore ISI Group's Greg Melich, one of the more accurate voices with a 76% success rate, maintained his In-Line rating but reduced his target from $103 to $100 on October 14.
Perhaps most notable is DA Davidson's Michael Baker, who has a 76% accuracy rate and remains one of the more bullish voices. He kept his Buy rating but slashed his price target from $115 to $108 on October 13.
The pattern here is pretty clear: Even analysts who like Target are getting more conservative with their price expectations. Whether that's reading the retail tea leaves correctly or being overly cautious, we'll find out Wednesday morning.
