The government shutdown drama barely ended before a bigger threat to food assistance landed. Millions of Americans now face losing benefits under new rules that tighten eligibility, add work requirements and dump costs onto states already strapped for cash.

The Math Behind The Cutbacks

Right now about 42 million people across 22.7 million households receive SNAP benefits, nearly one in eight Americans, according to Pew Research. Children, seniors and people with disabilities account for roughly two-thirds of participants, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reports. Federal spending hit about $100 billion in 2024, with average benefits running roughly $180 per person monthly.

The "One Big Beautiful Bill" signed by President Donald Trump in July changed the game. Work requirements now apply to able-bodied adults without dependents up to age 64, not 54. Caregivers only get a pass if they live with children under 14, down from 18. Exemptions that used to cover homeless individuals, veterans and former foster youth? Gone. American Indians gained an exemption, but that's the lone expansion.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates about 1.1 million people will lose SNAP between 2025 and 2034 just from the stricter work rules.

What Happens When Work Rules Get Stricter

Here's the uncomfortable part: research suggests these policies slash enrollment without actually getting people into jobs. A National Bureau of Economic Research study found SNAP work requirements cut participation among affected adults by 53% and disproportionately pushed homeless people off benefits, with no overall employment gains to show for it.

Joel Berg, CEO of Hunger Free America, told ABC News the new rules mean "millions of people are going to lose food." He argues many recipients will miss work or paychecks just trying to keep up with paperwork demands.

The law also bars many refugees, asylum seekers, trafficking survivors and Iraqi or Afghan special immigrant visa holders from SNAP, breaking with decades of policy. CBO projects about 90,000 people in those categories will lose eligibility. Naomi Steinberg of HIAS called the policy "mean-spirited and counterproductive" in a public statement, saying it undermines families "just getting their feet on the ground."

States Get Stuck With The Bill

Supporters say the changes promote work and trim the deficit. CBO estimates federal SNAP spending will drop by roughly $180 billion over the next decade, but here's the catch: about $128 billion of those "savings" come from shifting benefit costs to states, which must cover 5% to 25% of food aid starting in 2028.

According to a June 2025 Reuters report, state officials and the National Conference of State Legislatures warn the new match requirements could force impossible choices. Tighten eligibility, cut benefits or raise taxes when the next recession hits and demand spikes? None of those options leave low-income households better off.