A Long Wait Until the Bottom?

If you thought Bitcoin (BTC) was done falling, analyst Ali Martinez has some bad news. He's predicting the leading cryptocurrency won't hit its bottom until October 2026, even as it crashed below $90,000 on Monday.

Martinez based his forecast on a surprisingly consistent pattern: Bitcoin bear markets historically last around 364 days. He pointed to two clear examples. During the 2017-18 cycle, Bitcoin peaked in December 2017 and bottomed exactly a year later in December 2018. Then in 2021-22, it topped out and hit its lowest point in November 2022, again roughly a year apart.

"Assuming Bitcoin reached a market top on Oct. 6 at $126,200, the next market bottom could be in October 2026, presenting an ideal buying opportunity," Martinez stated.

That's a bold call, especially for anyone hoping this downturn would be quick and painless.

The Numbers Tell a Brutal Story

Martinez's prediction arrives during a particularly rough stretch for crypto. Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 late Monday, marking its lowest point in nearly seven months. The broader carnage is even more striking.

Capital markets commentator The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that since Bitcoin's all-time high, the cryptocurrency market has wiped out $1.2 trillion in market capitalization. That's 28% of its total value, gone.

"It's safe to say that crypto just experienced its '2025 bear market,'" The Kobeissi Letter remarked.

The sentiment data backs up the gloom. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows "Extreme Fear" has taken hold of the market, hitting levels last seen in late February.

Not Everyone Agrees on the Peak

While Martinez is already mapping out the bottom, Wall Street strategist Tom Lee isn't convinced we've even seen the top yet. Lee suggested the "next" cryptocurrency cycle peak is still 12-36 months away, rejecting the idea that the market has already topped out.

That's quite a divergence in views. Either we're halfway through a year-long slide to October 2026, or we haven't even reached the summit yet.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $89,836.72, down 5.55% over the past 24 hours.