Jensen Huang's sudden departure from Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) may have been about more than his personal scandal.
Semiconductor research firm SemiAnalysis suspects US intelligence officials helped push him out to clear the way for tougher restrictions on China's access to American AI chips.
Nvidia announced Huang's resignation Thursday as CEO and board member, naming CFO Colette Kress interim chief executive.
"We believe the US intelligence community is a large part of the push to get Jensen out of Nvidia," SemiAnalysis wrote.
Why Now?
SemiAnalysis's theory centers on a growing battle in Washington over China's access to American AI chips.
The firm estimates more than 1.5 gigawatts of restricted Nvidia chip capacity reached China and claims the Commerce Department shares that assessment, though it offered no evidence for the latter claim.
President Donald Trump approved tougher action against suspected Nvidia chip smuggling to China at least three times this year, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick repeatedly delayed enforcement, Axios reported.
Commerce disputed Axios's account of a White House meeting in which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confronted Lutnick over the issue.
At the same time, US intelligence had known about Huang's relationship with Alice Huang, a woman suspected of Chinese intelligence ties, for months, The New York Times reported.
Former White House AI czar David Sacks challenged the allegations Thursday evening.
"The spy narrative is collapsing already," Sacks wrote. He also questioned why the classified memo became public: "Who did that and why?"
That question goes to the heart of SemiAnalysis's theory: Huang's scandal may have removed a powerful opponent of tighter China chip restrictions just as Washington was pushing for them.
The firm offered no direct evidence of intelligence involvement, describing its interpretation as its "best conspiracy theory take."
Could Washington's Chip Crackdown Backfire?
Huang had long argued that keeping China dependent on American chips was better than driving its developers toward domestic rivals such as Huawei.
One potential flashpoint is the Remote Access Security Act (RASA), which could restrict Chinese companies from renting Nvidia computing power from US and overseas cloud providers.
The bill passed the House 369-22 but has yet to receive a Senate vote. Nvidia warned in August that it could materially affect its business.
On Polymarket, traders Friday gave related chip-security legislation a 59% chance of becoming law this year, compared with 34% for AI-chip export-licensing oversight. Neither contract covers RASA directly.
The stakes are substantial. Reuters identified $3.2 billion in Chinese AI projects built around restricted Nvidia processors, while Chinese companies are already rushing to secure overseas computing capacity.
SemiAnalysis warns that shutting China out could accelerate its shift toward Huawei, potentially strengthening the very competitor Nvidia has spent years trying to keep at bay.
