Here is a fun little puzzle for a Friday morning: Bloomin' Brands (BLMN) beat Wall Street's estimates, raised its full-year profit forecast, and its stock still fell. Welcome to the restaurant business, where the quarter you just reported matters less than the quarter you are about to report.

Bloomin', the company behind Outback Steakhouse, Bonefish Grill, Carrabba's Italian Grill and Fleming's, reported an adjusted loss of 17 cents per share for the third quarter. Analysts were bracing for a loss of 24 cents, so that is a beat. Revenue rose 1.7% to $944.35 million, comfortably ahead of the $925.23 million estimate.

Some of that top-line growth came from a $13.2 million benefit tied to revised gift card breakage estimates. That is the accounting term for gift cards people never redeem, and yes, it counts as revenue. Restaurant closures and openings partly offset the gains.

Outback's Turnaround Has Four Pillars

CEO Mike Spanos laid out four priorities for fixing Outback Steakhouse: improving the dining experience, strengthening the brand's appeal, rebuilding restaurant culture and upgrading locations. Outback's guest satisfaction scores improved for the fifth straight quarter, so something is moving in the right direction.

The Traffic Problem

U.S. comparable restaurant sales rose 1.9%, but look under the hood. A 3.7% increase in average check did all the heavy lifting, while traffic declined 1.8%. That is the classic restaurant math problem: you can charge more per visit, but eventually you need more visits.

By brand, Bonefish Grill led with 5.3% sales growth, followed by Outback Steakhouse at 1.9%. Carrabba's Italian Grill gained 0.6%, while Fleming's sales remained flat.

Margins told a similar story. GAAP operating margin improved to 2% from negative 3.9%, but adjusted operating margin narrowed to 0.3% from 0.8%. Adjusted restaurant-level margin slipped to 9.3% from 9.5%, and adjusted EBITDA fell to $44 million from $52 million. Higher food and labor costs, plus increased advertising spending, ate into profitability.

The company ended the quarter with $90.7 million in cash and $768 million in debt.

The Guidance Story

On the bright side, Bloomin' raised its full-year adjusted earnings forecast to 97 cents to $1.02 per share from 90 cents to $1. Analysts expect 97 cents. It also lifted its GAAP earnings forecast to $1.06 to $1.11 per share from 85 cents to 95 cents.

Then came the holiday quarter. Management forecast adjusted earnings of 7 cents to 12 cents per share, below the 14-cent estimate. For the full year, the company expects U.S. comparable sales growth of 1% to 1.5%, commodity inflation of 4.5% to 5.5% and wage inflation of 3% to 3.5%.

So the year looks fine. The next three months look less fine. Investors, being investors, focused on the latter.

Price action: Bloomin' Brands shares fell 2.01% to $10.26 in Friday's premarket trading, according to market data.