Toy giant Mattel Inc. (MAT) reported third-quarter financial results Thursday after market close, and the market's reaction was less than playful. Shares slid in after-hours trading as investors digested a mixed bag of strong earnings, a revenue miss, and lowered guidance.
Mattel's Hot Wheels Are Speeding Ahead, But Barbie Is Stuck in the Slow Lane
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The Numbers: A Mixed Toy Box
Mattel brought in $1.806 billion in revenue, up 4% year-over-year. That sounds fine until you realize the Street was expecting $1.835 billion. North America revenue rose 4%, and international revenue climbed 5%, so the growth is there, just not quite enough of it.
On the bottom line, Mattel shined. Earnings per share hit $1.30, crushing the consensus estimate of 94 cents. So the company is making more money per share than analysts thought, even if sales came in a bit light.
Gross billings by category tell the story of a company with some serious winners and a few tired franchises:
- Dolls: $703 million, up 4% year-over-year. KPop Demon Hunters was strong, but Barbie remained weak.
- Vehicles: $680 million, up 9% year-over-year. Hot Wheels continued to race ahead, with billings up 7%.
- Infant, Toddler and Preschool: $221 million, down 16% year-over-year. Fisher-Price was the weak spot.
- Action Figures, Building Sets, Games and Other: $451 million, up 12% year-over-year. Games and action figures both performed well.
New CEO, New Priorities
Roger Lynch took over as Mattel's CEO in October 2026, and he's already making the rounds to tell investors where he plans to steer the ship. "We will focus our resources on our greatest opportunities and translate the strength of Mattel's portfolio and capabilities into more consistent financial performance," Lynch said.
His three priorities are straightforward: strengthen the brands and win in toys, drive innovation and creativity, and invest with discipline to drive profitable growth. Simple enough, but the proof will be in the playroom.
What's less simple is the updated guidance. Mattel now expects fiscal 2026 earnings per share of $1.05 to $1.20, down from a prior range of $1.27 to $1.39. Full-year revenue is projected at $5.401 billion to $5.562 billion, also lowered from the previous $5.508 billion to $5.669 billion range.
Analysts, for what it's worth, were expecting full-year revenue of $5.667 billion and earnings of $1.29 per share. So the new guidance is below what the Street had modeled, which explains the stock's reaction.
Stock Slips After Hours
Mattel stock fell 3.14% to $14.50 in after-hours trading Thursday. The shares have traded between $12.40 and $22.48 over the past 52 weeks, so today's move puts them closer to the lower end of that range.
Investors are clearly weighing the earnings beat against the revenue miss and the guidance cut. The toy business is cyclical and competitive, and Mattel's new CEO has his work cut out for him. Hot Wheels and games are carrying the load right now, but Barbie and Fisher-Price need a jumpstart. Lynch's plan to focus resources on the biggest opportunities sounds good on paper, but Wall Street will want to see results.
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