MP Materials Corp. (MP) may need a stellar third-quarter financial report Thursday after market close to keep attention focused on the company and less so on the company's relationship with the White House.

Here are the earnings estimates, analyst ratings and key items to watch.

MP Materials Q3 Earnings Estimates

Analysts expect MP Materials to report third-quarter revenue of $117.46 million, up from $53.55 million in last year's third quarter, according to data from MarketDash Pro.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for revenue in six of the last 10 quarters, including two straight quarters.

Revenue estimates call for the highest quarterly revenue total from the company since the third quarter of 2022.

Analysts expect MP Materials to report a loss of 2 cents per share, an improvement from a loss of 10 cents per share.

The company has beaten analyst estimates for earnings in six of the last 10 quarters.

MP Materials Analyst Ratings

Here are the latest analyst ratings on MP Materials stock and their price targets:

• Morgan Stanley: Maintained Overweight rating, lowered price target from $73 to $66
• Baird: Maintained Outperform rating, lowered price target from $80 to $65

Key Items to Watch

MP Materials reported NdPr production was up 41% year over year in the second quarter, with sales up 127% year over year.

Analysts and investors will be watching for sales strength to continue.

MP also announced a long-term supply agreement with an unnamed U.S. aerospace and defense customer in the second quarter. More deals signed in the third quarter could boost the stock and outlook.

The company is one of a limited number of rare earth miners and could be crucial to supply for the technology industry moving forward.

An equity stake signed with the Pentagon in July 2025 ruffled the feathers of some Democratic members of Congress. That could become a rising topic going forward, with Democrats now having majority control of Congress beginning in January.

A 15% stake owned by the government in the company is one of several government stakes that could face pressure from members of Congress.

The initial agreement sent MP shares soaring and the relationship with the government has provided a lift to the stock on several occasions.

MP stock hit new 52-week lows of $35.69 on Wednesday.

While third-quarter results could be strong, the government stake could become a talking point and put more pressure on shares.

MP Stock Price Action

MP stock is down 5% to $35.94 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $35.69 to $76.80. MP stock is down 29% year-to-date in 2026.