A Polymarket whale who bet against Republican Ken Paxton took a victory lap at Elon Musk's expense after nearly $250 million in spending by Musk-backed groups failed to save a Republican Senate seat in Texas.
"A lot of us will do stupid things over the course of our lives," Domer wrote on X Tuesday.
But none, he joked, would do anything "stupider than @elonmusk spending $250m to try to flip a SAFE BLUE D+12 Senate seat. Lmao."
The Whale Who Bet Against Musk
Domer, who trades as ImJustKen, has earned more than $2.2 million in cumulative Polymarket profits across nearly 10,000 markets.
He wagered approximately $186,000 against a Republican victory in Texas, making about $62,000 in profit.
Four days before the vote, Polymarket gave Democrat James Talarico a 71% chance of victory, despite polling averages showing a lead of just two points. His odds reached roughly 75% on Election Day.
Talarico defeated Paxton by approximately 12 points with most votes counted. Texas hadn't elected a Democratic senator since 1988, or any Democrat statewide since 1994. Donald Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points in 2024.
Domer's description of Texas as "safe blue" was sarcasm about the result.
Trump's Nominee, Musk's Millions
Trump endorsed Paxton over four-term incumbent John Cornyn, despite Republican leaders warning that Paxton's scandals made him a riskier candidate. Paxton won the May runoff a week later.
Three Musk-funded committees spent $249.2 million supporting Paxton or attacking Talarico, according to a Black Mesa analysis of federal filings. The figure includes spending by committees with other donors, not just Musk's money.
Outside groups backing Paxton spent almost three times as much as those supporting Talarico. But the Democrat turned Musk's involvement into a campaign issue, accusing wealthy donors of trying to buy the election.
In an interview with MarketDash last week, Verasight CEO Ben Leff questioned how much additional campaign spending could achieve.
"Money certainly has an impact. But the Republicans are so underwater that it's hard to make up that gap with money alone," he said.
Leff also warned that Musk's own unpopularity could diminish the effectiveness of his financial intervention.
The SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) CEO responded early Wednesday: "Guess my election-interfering space lasers didn't work this time 🤷♂️"
