Here's a comforting thought for anyone worried that the US midterm elections might suddenly rearrange the entire US-China relationship: they probably won't. That's the read from Chen Dongxiao, president of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, who told The Paper, a digital news entity owned by the state-run Shanghai United Media Group, that the results would have a limited effect on US foreign policy.

Chen's reasoning is pretty simple. President Donald Trump would retain broad discretion over international affairs even if Democrats gained control of both congressional chambers. And both parties broadly agree on China strategy, which makes a major shift in the current US approach unlikely.

"The midterms may reshape the political landscape in Congress, but they won't necessarily deliver a massive, disruptive blow to China-US relations," Chen said, according to the South China Morning Post.

Taiwan Could Be the Real Flashpoint

But here's where it gets interesting. Chen warned that bipartisan frustration with Trump's delays in arms sales to Taiwan could prompt lawmakers to exert greater pressure on the administration to accelerate weapons transfers following the midterm elections. So the thing to watch isn't some grand reset in Washington's China policy. It's whether a newly energized Congress decides to make Taiwan a priority and starts pushing the administration to move faster on weapons deliveries.

Hilton Root, a George Mason University professor, offered a separate take to SCMP. He said Trump's weakened political position would not necessarily make Washington more accommodating toward China. Sure, Trump may pursue a personal deal with Xi Jinping to bolster his diplomatic legacy. But Republican losses could make such agreements harder to implement due to increased congressional scrutiny.

Root's advice for China: cultivate relationships with a broader range of US lawmakers. Still, he said the presidential channel would remain crucial. A Democratic House could scrutinize concessions to Beijing without reversing the broader technology rivalry. In other words, Congress can make noise and slow things down, but it probably can't undo the fundamental competition.

Speaking of the presidential channel, Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Shenzhen later this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. That sitdown will be the next big data point for anyone trying to figure out where this relationship is headed.

More Tariffs Could Come In

Meanwhile, the trade file is quietly heating up. US trade investigators have largely completed probes into 16 economies, including China and Japan, over alleged industrial overcapacity, paving the way for new tariffs under Trump, according to an October Nikkei Asia report. The administration has delayed announcing the duties ahead of the midterm elections amid concerns that higher tariffs could worsen affordability pressures. China could face a 7.5% tariff, while other economies may face similar or lower rates.

Goldman Sachs expects Trump to announce additional tariffs after the midterm elections, potentially raising the effective US tariff rate by nearly two percentage points. Wall Street sees tariffs as a potential revenue source amid rising Middle East conflict costs and a $40 trillion national debt. ING economist James Smith warned that congressional divisions could lead to fiscal gridlock, pushing policymakers to focus more heavily on trade policy and import revenue. So if you were hoping for a quiet post-election period on trade, that seems unlikely.

Trump Could Bypass Congress With Orders

Beijing-based professor Diao Daming said narrow Democratic majorities in both chambers could limit the party's ability to advance legislation, potentially prompting Trump to focus more on foreign policy and use executive orders to bypass Congress. He also warned that Trump could take risks in areas where he believes he can deliver quick results. That's the wild card here. A president with less to lose domestically might decide to swing for the fences abroad, and Taiwan or tariffs could be exactly where that happens.