Anthony Scaramucci has a habit of making predictions that get people talking. This time, the former White House Communications Director weighed in on whether Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will still have a job by the end of the week, and his answer was not exactly a vote of confidence.
It started when The New Yorker journalist Susan Glasser posed a simple question on X: "over/under on Hegseth lasting the week?" Scaramucci's reply was blunt: "Under but way under by year-end." In other words, he thinks Hegseth is not long for Trump's administration.
The remarks land as Hegseth faces criticism over the Iran war, military leadership shake-ups and previous security controversies. That is a lot of incoming fire for one Pentagon chief.
Prediction Markets Weigh Hegseth's Departure Odds
Prediction markets reflect growing uncertainty over Hegseth's future. At the time of writing, Polymarket traders assigned approximately 36% odds to his departure by December 31, while Kalshi priced a roughly 27% probability of an exit before December 1. Both figures represent trading expectations rather than confirmed developments.
Earlier, Kalshi bettors placed a 62% probability on Hegseth leaving before February 2027, highlighting speculation about his position even before the November 3 elections.
Military Firings And Signal Controversy Fuel Scrutiny
The Associated Press reported last week that Hegseth fired Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the Pentagon's top military planner, without publicly explaining the decision. Nearly two dozen senior officers have departed during his tenure, prompting bipartisan demands for greater transparency.
Hegseth also faced an inspector general investigation after sharing sensitive details about planned military strikes against Yemen's Houthi militants in Signal messaging groups in 2025. The watchdog found that his actions created risks to U.S. personnel and military operations, although it did not conclude that he improperly declassified the information.
Democratic Midterm Victory Raises Impeachment Pressure
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) previously urged Trump to fire Hegseth, declaring, "It's the honorable thing to do." Massie pledged to reintroduce impeachment articles over the Iran conflict after the elections.
AP confirmed early Wednesday that Democrats had captured both chambers of Congress, potentially expanding investigations into Trump's administration and its conduct of the war. However, Hegseth remains in office, and Trump has not announced plans to replace him.
