Sometimes you beat the numbers, raise the guidance, and the stock still gets taken out back. That was Tuesday for Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM), which reported better-than-expected third-quarter results and lifted its full-year earnings outlook, only to watch its shares slide.

The agricultural giant also told investors it expects favorable market conditions to stick around into 2027, with earnings likely to remain near 2026 levels.

For the quarter, ADM posted adjusted earnings of $1.77 per share, comfortably ahead of the $1.60 analysts were looking for. Revenue came in at $22.335 billion, topping the $22.191 billion consensus.

Crushing It, Literally

Total segment operating profit jumped 64% year over year to $1.38 billion, driven by stronger crushing and biofuels margins.

Ag Services and Oilseeds operating profit surged 105% to $778 million. The star of that show: crushing profit climbed to $311 million from $13 million a year earlier, supported by stronger soybean meal demand and biofuels margins. Going from $13 million to $311 million is the kind of glow-up that usually gets its own montage.

Carbohydrate Solutions profit rose 40% to $470 million, benefiting from higher ethanol margins and policy incentives. Nutrition profit increased 3% to $134 million, despite a 4% revenue decline to $1.8 billion.

ADM also flagged growth opportunities in animal-free proteins, egg-white and whey alternatives through precision fermentation. And it continues to target $80 million to $100 million in additional annual operating profit from natural colors over time as customers launch new products.

Guidance Goes Up, Capex Goes Down

ADM raised its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $5.50-$5.80 per share, up from $5.15-$5.60. It also lowered its capital spending forecast to $1.2 billion-$1.3 billion from $1.3 billion-$1.5 billion. Less spending, more earnings. Investors generally like that math.

The company increased its expected benefit from the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit to approximately $350 million from $250 million. Management expects strong fourth-quarter growth in Crushing and Refined Products, supported by favorable biofuels margins.

The CEO's Take On Biofuel Margins

On the earnings call, CEO Juan Luciano said biofuel margins may have peaked in the third quarter but showed no signs of collapsing. He expects margins to remain strong into 2027, supported by robust soybean oil and meal demand and favorable U.S. biofuel policies. Luciano said the company continues to see strong demand even as some crushing margins have eased from recent highs.

Looking ahead, he expects the broader market environment in 2027 to remain largely similar to 2026, supported by favorable biofuel demand and margins. But he cautioned that market volatility, supply chain disruptions and changing conditions could affect results. Standard CEO hedging, but worth noting.

ADM said it remains on track to achieve its targeted aggregate companywide cost savings of $500 million to $750 million. During the first nine months of 2026, operating cash flow before working capital changes reached approximately $3 billion.

The company returned $254 million through dividends and repurchased approximately $360 million in shares during the third quarter.

Price Action: Archer-Daniels-Midland shares were down 5.53% at $71.58 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to market data.