Here's a fun thing about midterm elections: everyone spends months arguing about the wave, and then the wave arrives and immediately has to figure out how to pass a budget. A Chinese academic is now pouring some cold water on the whole blue-wave narrative, and his reasoning is worth sitting with.

Diao Daming, a professor at Beijing's Renmin University, told the South China Morning Post on Sunday that Democrats are well positioned to retake the House, while the Senate remains more difficult to predict. But even victories in both chambers might produce only narrow Democratic majorities. That would limit the party's ability to control legislation or articulate a unified governing strategy.

"Even if the Democrats come back, it may feel like a fragile, even narrow, even ineffective majority," he said.

Diao also questioned whether Democrats had built enough momentum to claim a genuine blue wave. Their campaign, he argued, focused heavily on criticizing Republicans while offering fewer clear solutions for inflation, elevated oil prices and trade-related economic concerns.

"That's why some people say it's not a blue wave but a red undertow," Diao said, describing Democratic gains that may lack the force required to significantly redirect U.S. politics.

And here's the part that should get your attention. Diao suggested Trump could concentrate more intensely on his international legacy during a potentially weakened presidency, leaning on executive orders to work around Congress. "On the other hand, [in areas] he believes he can control or achieve results quickly, he may also take some risky actions."

That is a polite academic way of saying: a president with less domestic room to maneuver might go looking for room abroad.

Meanwhile, Meng Weizhan, a social sciences researcher at Shanghai's Fudan University, told the publication that even if Democrats gained control of both chambers, they would struggle to enact their full policy agenda because of Trump's veto power. He added that Republicans could narrowly retain control of the Senate while Democrats win the House.

Could the Midterm Showdown Reshape Trump's Agenda?

The numbers behind all this: Democrats hold an 8.2-point national polling lead over Republicans, while Trump's approval rating stands at 37%, with 61% disapproving. Rising living costs, energy prices, healthcare and immigration are emerging as key voter concerns ahead of the midterms. Democrats are targeting competitive Senate races in Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, as Republicans currently retain control of both chambers of Congress.

The possibility of a Democratic takeover has already prompted planning inside the Trump White House. Senior White House officials, including Stephen Miller and Russell Vought, have reportedly been developing plans since April to advance Trump's agenda without congressional approval if Democrats take control of both chambers. The strategy includes executive actions on tariffs, immigration, housing and federal spending, while exploring the limits of presidential authority and potential legal challenges.

Meanwhile, Republican divisions could further complicate the post-election landscape. Former Trump strategist Steve Bannon predicted a GOP "civil war" after the election and warned that the post-midterm lame-duck session could bring fierce congressional battles over the debt ceiling, government spending, defense policy and AI, with potential implications for defense contractors, tech stocks and Treasury yields.

So the wave, the undertow, the veto pen and the lame-duck calendar are all colliding at once. That is a lot of moving parts for a country that mostly just wants to know what its energy bill will look like.