Prediction markets give Democrat James Talarico a 70% chance of winning Texas, but Verasight CEO Ben Leff says the Senate race remains closer than many realize.
“I don’t think people are fully appreciating how tight these races are right now,” Leff told MarketDash in an exclusive interview Thursday.
An October poll conducted by Verasight with VoteHub found Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 48% to 45% among likely voters, within the margin of error.
“We would not be surprised if Ken Paxton was able to win,” Leff said.
Traders More Confident Than Forecasters
On Polymarket, traders put Talarico’s chances at 70%, with more than $7.6 million traded on the Nov. 3 election.
Decision Desk HQ’s Thursday forecast gave Talarico a 60% chance of victory, projecting a two-point margin. The model blends polling, political fundamentals and prediction markets, with markets accounting for 25% of its calculation.
Asked about the prediction-market odds, Leff said the race "probably leans Talarico," adding that the margin remains within the poll’s error.
Talarico is outperforming his party in Texas, with Republicans leading the generic congressional ballot in the VoteHub/Verasight survey despite trailing in the Senate race.
Republican Turnout Could Decide the Race
President Donald Trump campaigned for Paxton at rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock on Tuesday.
“When there’s such an unpopular president, it’s not always beneficial to have the president out there campaigning for you,” Leff said.
He added that Trump’s campaigning may be more helpful in Republican-leaning states, where his appearances can energize the party’s base. In more competitive states, however, his presence could provoke a backlash among voters.
Leff believes voters have largely made up their minds, leaving turnout as the biggest uncertainty.
“What is up for grabs is turnout, so who’s going to get out to vote,” he said.
Republicans tend to vote at higher rates on Election Day itself, Leff noted, making their participation particularly important to Paxton’s chances.
Leff also questioned whether Republicans can mobilize the disengaged voters who turned out for Trump in 2024.
He said Trump has an unusual ability to attract those voters, but he had not seen data showing they would turn out at the same rates without Trump on the ballot.
Early voting in Texas ends Friday, leaving Paxton reliant on an Election Day surge from voters Nate Silver warned might stay home.
