Anthony Scaramucci has a theory about polling, and it goes something like this: people lie to pollsters about Trump, then go vote for him anyway.

The SkyBridge Capital founder said on X on Wednesday that Democrats will flip the House, picking up roughly 15 seats in the lower chamber, while Republicans shift resources from vulnerable House races to defend their Senate majority. That Senate fight, in his view, is "closer" than the headlines suggest.

Trump's Shy Voters

Scaramucci, a longtime Bitcoin (BTC) bull, flagged Maine, Texas, and Kansas as pivotal Senate contests that are "inside the margin of error."

His argument: ongoing polls do not reflect the ground sentiment, because voters deny supporting Trump when asked. They do not want to appear "racist" or aligned with an "unpopular" figure, he said. The same people, he added, go and eventually vote for Trump.

"He's [Trump] constantly been under-polled. Which means he has a real chance to keep the Senate," Scaramucci added.

Prediction Markets Are Pricing in a Democratic Sweep

Cryptocurrency punters, however, are not on board with Scaramucci. Polygon (POL)-based Polymarket currently gives Democrats a 67% chance of winning both chambers of Congress, while Republicans retaining the Senate but losing the House stands at 28%.

The elections are scheduled for Nov. 3.

Approval ratings for Trump are trending lower and hitting new lows. A Washington Post/ABC News/Ipsos poll for October showed Trump with a 33% approval rating, as voters grew increasingly concerned about rising prices and the economy.

Scaramucci himself has been an outspoken critic of Trump's policies, arguing that the president had inflicted "self-harm" on the economy, while describing the president's tariffs as "an unmitigated disaster."